NBA Betting Trends: Put some respect on the Miami Heat

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January 20th, 2022

Now that we've passed the halfway point of the NBA regular season, we have a strong set of data to dive into. Let's break down the latest metrics from around the league, and determine which trends you should take advantage of this season.

The Raptors are rising

After starting the season a dreadful 8-14 ATS, the Toronto Raptors have hit a little bit of a hot streak. They are 14-5 ATS in their last 21 games, and some of their recent success comes from a lack of rest.

While that may not make sense at first glance, the Raptors are 6-1 ATS in the second game of a back-to-back. They are also 7-3 ATS this season when they have the rest disadvantage compared to their opponent. This is likely due to oddsmakers pumping up the odds for the opponent when Toronto is playing back-to-back games. However, the Raptors have performed well in these spots.

Miami loves the disrespect

In all games this season, the Miami Heat are a profitable 26-18 ATS. When they are underdogs, they are on a whole 'nother level. Miami is a league best 13-2 ATS as an underdog. In the rare situation where they are home underdogs, the Heat are a perfect 4-0 ATS.

Some of the other profitable underdogs in the NBA include the Memphis Grizzlies, Cleveland Cavaliers, and Oklahoma City Thunder. The Grizzlies are 14-6 ATS as underdogs and 10-4 ATS as road underdogs. The Cavaliers are 17-8-1 ATS as underdogs and 11-5-1 ATS as road underdogs. The Thunder are 27-13-1 ATS as underdogs and 13-6-1 ATS as home underdogs.

Overs and Unders

On the season so far, the totals favor the Under at 339-311 in all games and 335-289 in all non-overtime games. That means that the Over is 22-4 in all overtime games. While you can hardly predict a game going to overtime to hit an Over, there are some total trends to look for based on situations and teams.

The hottest team for betting the Over on is the Houston Rockets. They are 14-3 in favor of the Over in their past 17 games and 7-1 to the Over in their past eight home games. Houston is the second best team to bet on the Over with in the NBA behind Miami at 27-18.

The Dallas Mavericks are in a league of their own when looking at the best teams to bet the Under on. Dallas games favor the Under at 30-13, which is 69.8% hit rate. The next closest rate for Unders is the Golden State Warriors at 61.9%. The Mavericks are also the hottest team in the NBA towards Unders as the Under is 9-1 in their last 10 games overall, and 11-1 in their last 12 home games.

Hawks have been grounded

The Atlanta Hawks are now the worst team in the NBA against the spread. They are 16-27 ATS on the season, and are 7-16 ATS in their last 23 games. Atlanta is especially bad against Western Conference teams. The Hawks are 5-12 ATS in those spots, and 5-12 ATS following a win.