NBA Betting Trends: The Hornets thrive in the hive
Now that we've passed the halfway point of the NBA regular season, we have a strong set of data to dive into. Let's break down the latest metrics from around the league, and determine which trends you should take advantage of this week and beyond.
NBA Mini-series trends
Last week, we discussed the NBA mini-series that occur from time to time throughout the season. In these games, we have found a few interesting trends.
Let's start with the Eastern Conference. In the first game of the mini-series, the road underdog is 4-2-1 ATS. In the second game, the home team is 8-4 ATS, and home favorites are 5-2 ATS. In all games in these mini-series, the Over is 14-10.
In the Western Conference, the Under is an impressive 9-6 in the first game of these mini-series. Meanwhile, the Over is a strong play at 9-6 in the second game. Also in the second game, the underdog is 10-5 ATS, and road underdogs are an amazing 8-1 ATS. The team that lost straight-up in the first game is 10-5 ATS in the second game.
This upcoming week, we have two Western conference mini-series with the New Orleans Pelicans and Houston Rockets on Sunday, Feb. 6 and Tuesday, Feb. 8, and the Minnesota Timberwolves and Sacramento Kings on Tuesday, Feb. 8 and Wednesday, Feb. 9.
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Golden State Warriors
Los Angeles Lakers
In last week’s column, we discussed how badly some teams are in playing back-to-back games in certain situations.
When a team wins by six points or less and then plays again the very next day, they are a dreadful 12-24-2 ATS. Some of the worst teams in the NBA on the second game of a back-to-back are the Houston Rockets (1-6-1 ATS), Milwaukee Bucks (2-7 ATS), and Brooklyn Nets (1-7-1 ATS).
The best teams in the NBA on the second game of a back-to-back are the Toronto Raptors (7-2 ATS), New York Knicks (5-2 ATS), and Memphis Grizzlies (7-3 ATS).
Overs and Unders
On the season so far, the totals favor the Under at 392-371 in all games, and 388-344 in all non-overtime games. That means that the Over is 27-4 in all overtime games. While you can hardly predict a game going to overtime to hit an Over, there are some total trends to look for based on situations and teams.
The hottest team for betting the Over remains the Minnesota Timberwolves. They are 11-2 in favor of the Over in their past eight games, and 20-6 to the Over in all road games. Minnesota is now the second best team to bet on the Over in the NBA at 30-21. The Miami Heat (7-0) and Dallas Mavericks (5-0) are also on Over hot streaks.
The Mavericks are still in the lead when looking at the best teams to bet the Under on, but the regression has begun as we mentioned with their Over hot streak. The Boston Celtics are on the hottest streak for Unders as they have gone Under the total is seven of their last nine games. The New Orleans Pelicans (11-4) and Charlotte Hornets (14-6) are also on Under hot streaks.
The Hornets protect their hive
Speaking of the Hornets, Charlotte has been one of the best home teams against the spread this season. LaMelo Ball & Co. are an impressive 15-7 ATS in all home games this year. They are even better as home underdogs. When Charlotte is the underdog at home, they are an astounding 9-2 ATS.
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