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NBA Betting Trends: The Rockets are fizzling against the spread

Profile Picture: Jeremy Jones

February 23rd, 2022

As we exit the 2022 NBA All-Star break, we have a strong set of data to dive into. Let's break down the latest metrics from around the league, and determine which trends you should take advantage of this week and beyond.

NBA Mini-series trends

We discussed the NBA mini-series that occur from time to time throughout the season in last week's column. We've found a few interesting trends in the Western Conference:

  • The road favorite is 4-1 ATS in the first game
  • The favorite is 11-6-1 ATS overall in the first game
  • In the second game, the underdog is 12-6 ATS, and road underdogs are 9-2 ATS
  • The team that lost straight-up in the first game is 12-6 ATS in the second game
  • The road team in the second game is 13-5 ATS

Some trends in the Eastern Conference include:

  • The road underdog is 4-2-1 ATS in the first game
  • The home team is 8-4 ATS in the second game
  • The home favorite is 5-2 ATS in the second game

There are two mini-series this week in the Western Conference with the Denver Nuggets and Sacramento Kings on Thursday, Feb. 24 and Saturday, Feb. 26, and the Los Angeles Clippers and Houston Rockets on Sunday, Feb. 27 and Tuesday, March 1. There are three in the Eastern Conference with the Philadelphia 76ers and New York Knicks on Sunday, Feb. 27 and Wednesday, March 2, the Indiana Pacers and Orlando Magic on Monday, Feb. 28 and Wednesday, March 2, and the Toronto Raptors and Brooklyn Nets on Monday, Feb. 28 and Tuesday, March 1.

NBA Championship 2021/2022

Sat, June 18 2022, 11:58 PM

Golden State Warriors

+400

Phoenix Suns

+400

Brooklyn Nets

+650

Milwaukee Bucks

+650

Philadelphia 76ers

+700

Miami Heat

+1000

Utah Jazz

+1800

Chicago Bulls

+2500

Memphis Grizzlies

+2500

Boston Celtics

+3000

Back-to-backs

When a team wins by six points or less and then plays again the very next day, they are a dreadful 14-27-2 ATS. Some of the worst teams in the NBA on the second game of a back-to-back are the Houston Rockets (1-7-1 ATS) and Brooklyn Nets (1-8-1 ATS).

The best teams in the NBA on the second game of a back-to-back are the Toronto Raptors (9-2 ATS), Memphis Grizzlies (7-4 ATS), and Indiana Pacers (7-3 ATS).

The Heat is on

It's that time of year where the weather starts to turn warmer and basketball madness starts to heat up. It's also when the Miami Heat thrive against the spread under head coach Erik Spoelstra. Since he became head coach in 2008, the Heat are a combined 169-144-6 in the final 25 games of the regular season.

Last season, the Heat went 17-8 in the final 25 games of the regular season and 15-9-1 ATS. This season, they are 33-25-1 ATS in all games and lead the Eastern Conference at 38-21 straight up. They are especially good as an underdog, where they are 13-5 ATS, and after a loss, where they are 14-6-1 ATS.

Houston, we have a problem

Not only are the Houston Rockets one of the worst teams in the NBA straight-up, they are also one of the worst teams at covering the spread. They are 23-34-1 ATS on the season and have failed to cover in nine of their past 11 games.

They are also terrible as home underdogs at 6-16 ATS. The only major category of betting trends where the Rockets have a winning percentage against the spread is after a win, where they are 8-7 ATS. It could continue to get worse unless the oddsmakers make them massive underdogs down the stretch.

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