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NBA Trends: The Under lives in Golden State

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May 6th, 2021

We've entered the home stretch of the NBA season, and now have a strong set of data to dive into.

Let's break down the latest metrics from around the league, and determine which trends you should take advantage of as the playoffs near.

Mini Series Trends

All season long, we've been following NBA mini series and tracking the best bets to make. In all mini series combined, the Under is 30-15-1 in the second game of the mini series.

In the 40 mini series that have been played in the Western Conference, the Under is 42-37-1. The team that lost the first game is 24-15-1 ATS in the second game.

In the 35 mini series that have been played in the Eastern Conference, the team that covered the first game is 19-16 ATS in the second game. The underdog is 38-32 ATS in all games.

Favorites are king (But not the Kings)

In the past seven days, favorites are 33-22 ATS. The favorites are exceptionally good in road games. In the past seven days, the road favorite is 20-9 ATS. That is a 69% win rate, and if you had wagered $100 on every road favorite against the spread, you would have banked a cool $1,010 in just a week.

However, the Sacramento Kings are a team that should be avoided when you see them as a favorite. They are 7-14-1 ATS in all games as a favorite, and 2-5 ATS as a road favorite this season. Two teams that are excellent road favorites are the Washington Wizards (5-1 ATS) and the Charlotte Hornets (6-2 ATS).

Not the same old Warriors

In recent years, the Golden State Warriors have been known for their stellar shooting and high scoring, fast-paced offense. However, this season has been a different story, as they're averaging five fewer points per game than they did in 2018-19. 

The Under is an impressive 40-26 in all Golden State games thus far this season. Only the Los Angeles Lakers have a higher win percentage for Unders this season. The Under has hit in seven of the past nine games involving the Warriors.

The best scenarios to play the Under in Golden State games include when they are playing the second game of a back-to-back. The Under is 10-4 in that scenario. When the Warriors are playing on the road, the Under is 23-13 and when they are favored on the road, it is 9-4.

Cleveland does not rock

The Cleveland Cavaliers have gone into full tank mode gunning for the No. 1 draft pick. They have lost eight consecutive games straight-up, and 18 of their last 22. They have also failed to cover in 11 of the last 12 games, and 21 of the last 30 games.

Kevin Love, in particular, doesn't seem to be especially happy about the current state of affairs:

A few scenarios to look for are when the Cavaliers have the rest disadvantage from their opponents. In that scenario, they are 2-11 ATS. In games against the Western Conference, they are 6-22 ATS. They have consecutive games against Dallas in the next week and will be easy targets to bet against.

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