NBA Trends Watch: Jazz are hitting all the right notes

Profile Picture: Jeremy Jones

February 11th, 2021

We've completed nearly a third of the NBA season, and now have a strong set of data to dive into.

Let's break down the latest metrics from around the league and determine which trends you should take advantage of for the 2020-21 NBA season.

Home is not where the money is

All season long, road underdogs have been on fire. They are 117-92-2 ATS on the season and 15-10-1 ATS in the past seven days. Lately, the road team has also been winning against the spread. In the past seven days, road teams are 28-18-1 ATS. This has brought the season total to 193-165-3 ATS for all road teams.

There are four teams in the league that are better than 70% ATS on the road: Oklahoma City Thunder (9-3 ATS), Chicago Bulls (9-3 ATS), San Antonio Spurs (7-3 ATS), and Sacramento Kings (7-3 ATS). These four teams are also a combined 29-6 ATS as road underdogs.

Mini series trends

There were four mini series in the Western Conference and three mini series in the Eastern Conference this past week.

In the 22 mini series that have been played in the Western Conference, the Under is 23-20, but 8-16 in the last three weeks. The team that lost the first game is 13-9 ATS and 3-1 ATS in the last week.

In the 23 mini series that have been played in the Eastern Conference, the team that covered the first game is 13-10 ATS and 2-1 ATS in the past week. The underdog is 22-16, but only 2-4 in the past week.

Smooth as Jazz

No team in the NBA has been hotter than the Utah Jazz. They are sitting at 20-5 straight-up on the season and 18-7 ATS. These numbers are impressive, but nothing compared to the following trend. The Utah Jazz have covered 16 of the last 17 games against the spread!

One major reason for the success of the Jazz this season has been their increase in three point shooting. They are averaging nearly four more made three-pointers per game than last year, and 3.3 more points per game.

Vegas has caught on to this red-hot team, but it does not seem to matter. The Jazz have been a favorite by an average of 6.1 points per game in the past 17 games, yet they have had no issues covering these large spreads.

Will the Miami Heat make the playoffs this season?

Tepid Heat

Miami entered the 2020-21 season with high expectations as the defending Eastern Conference champions. However, it has been an extremely disappointing season for them thus far. The Heat are 10-14 straight-up and a league-worst 8-15-1 ATS.

It really has not even been close for the Heat this season. They have failed to cover the spread by an average of 4.5 points per game. The Heat offense has struggled as the have dropped 5.1 points per game from last season. They currently rank 27th in the NBA in scoring average.