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NBA Trends Watch: Road underdogs have been money

Profile Picture: Jeremy Jones

February 4th, 2021

We've completed a quarter of the NBA season and now have a strong set of data to determine trends.

Let's break down the latest metrics from around the league and determine which trends you should take advantage of for the 2020-21 NBA season.

Road dogs bite hard

It has been quite the season for road underdogs in the NBA, and was especially good in the final week of January. Road underdogs went an impressive 19-9 ATS in the past seven days. This brings their season total to 102-81-1 ATS. That is a 55.7% win percentage and wagering $100 on every road underdog would net you a profit of $1,290.

Quite a few teams that have proven to be money as a road underdog this season. Continue to look for these teams in this spot: Phoenix Suns (5-0 ATS), Chicago Bulls (8-1 ATS), Sacramento Kings (6-1 ATS), San Antonio Spurs (4-1 ATS), and Oklahoma City Thunder (8-3 ATS).

Mini series shifts

There were four mini series in the Western Conference and two mini series in the Eastern Conference this past week. The season shifts seem to be hitting these hard.

In the 18 mini series that have been played in the Western Conference, the Under is 20-16 and the team that lost the first game is 10-8 ATS in the second. In the last two weeks though, the Under is 5-12 and the team that lost the first game is 2-6 ATS. Time to switch up your wagers.

In the 20 mini series that have been played in the Eastern Conference, the team that covered the first game is 11-9 ATS, but they are 3-5 ATS in the past two weeks. The underdog is 20-12 and 6-2 in the past two weeks.

Which upcoming mini series are you most looking forward to?

Overs are back in season

In the past seven days, the Over is 30-23. This has brought the season total back to above .500 at 157-155 for the Over. The best two teams to follow for Overs are the Denver Nuggets (15-5) and Brooklyn Nets (17-6).

The Brooklyn Nets have improved their points per game average by a stunning 10.8 points per game from the 2019 season. The Nets are averaging a league high 122.3 points per game this season. All that talent is paying off on the offensive end.

The Denver Nuggets have increased their points per game average by 6.1 from the 2019 season, and are fourth in the league in scoring at 116.6 points per game. Only the Chicago Bulls (+8.6 points per game) and Brooklyn Nets have improved more than the Nuggets since 2019.

Fade the public

When betting the NBA, look for big line movement. There are several factors that can move a line, but when the factor is because the public is betting heavy on one side, fade that side! Since 2004, when the spread moves by at least 2 points and less than 31% of the bets are on a side, the side with the lower amount of bets has won 58% of the time (269-198-8 ATS).

Thus far, this season, when the team gets less than 31% of the public bets against the spread, that team is 13-6 ATS. Look for these numbers before you wager, and rake in the cash by continuing to fade the public.

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