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NBA Trends Watch: The Brooklyn Nets are getting too much respect

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April 1st, 2021

We've entered the home stretch of the NBA season, and now have a strong set of data to dive into.

Let's break down the latest metrics from around the league, and determine which trends you should take advantage of as the playoffs near.

Mini series trends

All season long, we've been following NBA mini series and tracking the best bets to make. In all mini series combined, the Under is an impressive 24-10-1 in the second game of the mini series. The Under has gone 8-3 in the past two weeks in such games.

In the 33 mini series that have been played in the Western Conference, the Under is 34-29-1. The team that lost the first game is 21-12 ATS and 11-4 ATS in the second game in the last six weeks.

In the 31 mini series that have been played in the Eastern Conference, the team that covered the first game is 16-15 ATS, but 2-0 ATS in the second game in the past week. The underdog is 32-20 and 10-4 in the past six weeks.

It's nice to be favored

In the past week, the favorites have been dominating the league. In all games combined, the favorite is 31-21 ATS. The road favorites are an astounding 16-10 ATS over that period. On the entire season, road favorites are now 155-143-3 ATS and one of the most consistent betting trends for the longterm.

The best teams to look for as road favorites are the Charlotte Hornets (4-1 ATS) and Memphis Grizzlies (5-2 ATS). The team to avoid in this spot is the Houston Rockets (1-4 ATS), but it is probably best to avoid them in all scenarios.

Too much hype in Brooklyn

The Brooklyn Nets are getting all the hype as new favorites to win it all and rightfully so. However, they are getting too much respect in the betting lines. The Nets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall and they have failed to cover seven consecutive games as a favorite.

NBA Championship 2020/2021

Mon, August 30 2021, 11:57 PM

Brooklyn Nets

+260

Los Angeles Lakers

+290

Los Angeles Clippers

+500

Milwaukee Bucks

+700

Utah Jazz

+850

Philadelphia 76ers

+1100

Denver Nuggets

+1800

Phoenix Suns

+2500

Miami Heat

+2500

Boston Celtics

+3500

They also have been getting a little too much respect for their offense. The projected totals have been high in Nets games and it has cost them in their Over/Under record. Six of the previous seven games have gone Under the total. The only Over that hit in that period was a low total of 217.5 points. The next lowest total in that period was 227.5 points.

Watch out for the "other" L.A. team

The Clippers have fallen by the wayside in Los Angeles since LeBron and AD joined forces and took them to an NBA title last season. However, L.A.'s "other team" has been fighting back with some impressive moves of its own.

They've also been red-hot against the spread. The Clippers are 8-3 ATS in their past 11 games. They are especially good when they are on the second night of a back-to-back. They are an impressive 8-1 ATS with no rest, and 6-2 ATS in division games, including wins over the Lakers and surging Suns.

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