NBA Trends Watch: The Heat is on

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March 11th, 2021

We've officially completed the first half of the NBA season, and now have a strong set of data to dive into.

Let's break down the latest metrics from around the league, and determine which trends you should take advantage of as the 2020-21 season rolls on.

The Heat is on

It's that time of year where the weather starts to turn warmer and basketball madness starts to heat up. It's also when the Miami Heat thrive against the spread under head coach Erik Spoelstra. Since he became head coach in 2008, the Heat are a combined 152-136-6 in the final 25 games of the regular season.

Miami is even better when its season winning percentage is below 60%, and the franchise is fighting for a playoff spot. The Heat are 98-80-5 ATS in the second half of the season in this scenario. Miami is currently 18-18 straight-up, so be on the lookout for some hot streaks against the spread.

Jazz and Suns are making history

Since the 2002-03 NBA season, no team has finished with a better against the spread record than 64.5%. At the All-Star break, the Utah Jazz and Phoenix Suns are sitting at 69.4% and 68.6% respectively.

History suggests these two teams will start to revert to the norm over the second half of the season, and that seems to be the case. After the historic run by the Jazz through January and early February, they are 3-4 ATS over their last seven games.

The Phoenix Suns are in the middle of their own historic run, as they have covered the spread in 16 of their last 19 games. Can they remain red-hot, or will they come back to earth as the playoffs approach?

Who is your favorite team to bet ATS this season?

Overs reign in New Orleans

Since the 2002-03 season, only one team has had a better Over percentage in their games than 63%, and that was the 2013-14 Detroit Pistons (67.1%). Currently, there are four teams with a better Over percentage than 63%, including the New Orleans Pelicans (72.2%), Sacramento Kings (69.4%), Brooklyn Nets (67.6%), and Denver Nuggets (63.9%).

Conventional wisdom would lead you to believe that these numbers will regress to the mean, but it's worth noting that the Over has hit 19 times in the Pelicans' last 24 games. It may be wise to ride this trend for a little longer.

NBA Mini series continue

We've been following trends surrounding the mini series played this season, and now we have a fascinating new trend that has emerged over the last month. The Under is an impressive 14-6-1 in the second game of these mini series since the beginning of February.

In the next week, we'll get Milwaukee at Washington, Portland at Minnesota, Los Angeles Clippers at Dallas, and New Orleans at Portland in mini series action. Get ready to hammer the Under!