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NBA Trends Watch: The Suns are unbeaten as road underdogs

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March 25th, 2021

We've entered the home stretch of the NBA season, and now have a strong set of data to dive into.

Let's break down the latest metrics from around the league, and determine which trends you should take advantage of as the playoffs near.

Mini series trends

All season long, we've been following NBA mini series and tracking the best bets to make. In all mini series combined, the Under is an impressive 21-7-1 in the second game of the mini series. The Under went 5-0 in this past week in such games!

In the 29 mini series that have been played in the Western Conference, the Under is 31-24-1. The team that lost the first game is 19-10 ATS and 9-2 ATS in the second game in the last five weeks.

In the 29 mini series that have been played in the Eastern Conference, the team that covered the first game is 14-15 ATS, but 1-5 ATS in the second game in the past five weeks. The underdog is 29-19 and 7-3 in the past five weeks.

Should the NBA continue its mini series scheduling into future seasons?

Road teams are fighting back

After weeks of home teams dominating against the spread, the road teams are fighting back. In the past seven days, away teams are 30-22-1 ATS. Road favorites are 11-8-1 ATS, and road underdogs are 19-14 ATS in that timeframe.

The two best teams on the road are the Chicago Bulls (14-4 ATS) and Phoenix Suns (14-6 ATS). The Cleveland Cavaliers (6-15 ATS) are the team to avoid on the road. The Suns and Bulls are also amazing road underdogs at 5-0 ATS and 11-2 ATS respectively.

Unders are back

We touched on Unders in the mini series games, and they've been a very safe investment over the past seven days. The Under is 31-22 in the past week, and 312-298 in all non-overtime games on the season.

The three best teams to bet Unders on this season are the Los Angeles Lakers (28-16), Houston Rockets (26-16-1), and Golden State Warriors (27-17). The Dallas Mavericks are an especially good Under bet in games where they are underdogs (13-3). The San Antonio Spurs are great Under bets in spots where they are home favorites (8-2).

The Suns are red hot

The Phoenix Suns are one of the biggest surprises in the NBA this season at 29-14 and the current No. 2-seed in the Western Conference. They are also an impressive 29-14 ATS, which is best in the league. They especially excel in certain situations.

As road underdogs, the Suns are 5-0 ATS. When they have the rest advantage, the Suns are 6-1 ATS. When the Suns are on the second night of a back-to-back, they are 8-2 ATS. Another interesting trend with this team is that the Over is 3-0 when they are a home underdog and 2-5 when they are playing a divisional game.

The Rockets are crash landing

Since the beginning of February, the Houston Rockets are a dreadful 2-23 overall and 4-19 ATS. The likelihood of a Victor Oladipo trade only makes things worse. The Rockets are especially bad in certain situations.

When Houston is the home underdog, they are 2-11 ATS. They are 4-18 ATS overall as the home team and 3-11 ATS overall as a favorite. They are a dreadful 13-30 ATS overall in all games this season.

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