Homenba

Warriors vs. Grizzlies: the best player prop bets for Jan. 11

Profile Picture: Rory Breasail

January 11th, 2022

The league-leading Golden State Warriors (30-9) pay visit to the red-hot Memphis Grizzlies (28-14) tonight. The Grizzlies, having rattled off an impressive nine consecutive wins, will be looking for their first 10-game winning streak in franchise history.

The Warriors will be without defensive stalwart Draymond Green and are still working Klay Thompson back into the rotation. The Grizzlies, meanwhile, are without Steven Adams and Dillon Brooks.

This has quickly become one of the better rivalries in the NBA. The Grizzlies handed the Warriors their first loss of the season on Oct. 28 in an OT thriller, and also sent them home during a drama-filled Play-In Game showdown last season. There appears to be no love lost between the two sides. Oh, and Steph Curry and Ja Morant are probably the two most exciting players to watch in the entire NBA.

Warriors vs. Grizzlies begins at 8:00 p.m. ET on NBA TV, and we have the three best player props below.

Wed, January 12 2022, 1:00 AM

MEM Grizzlies

Moneyline

+102

Spread

+1.5

Total

O 221

GS Warriors

Moneyline

-121

Spread

-1.5

Total

U 221

DESMOND BANE OVER/UNDER 17.5 POINTS

Desmond Bane is another draft success story for a team that just seems to keep winning on the margins. As the 30th overall pick, quite literally any team could have had Bane, who has blossomed into a starting-caliber shooting guard in just his second year. Instead, it is the Grizzlies who are reaping the rewards of his breakout season, making the leap from off-the-bench corner shooter to suddenly well-rounded starter.

Bane's minutes and usage have both taken big leaps, while his stellar shooting efficiency (57.8 eFG%) has hardly dipped even as he’s doubled his scoring output from 9.2 points per game as a rookie to 17.7 this season. 

With 24% of his offense coming from spot-ups, shooting off the catch is still Bane’s mainstay, and it's where he scores a scorching 1.21 points per possession, good enough for 89th percentile this season. But he’s also mixing in some plays as the pick and roll ball handler, where he’s actually neck and neck with Ja Morant in efficiency. If there’s any limitation to Bane’s game, it’s his negative wingspan that hurts his effectiveness as a finisher inside. But as a shooter, he’s as pure as they come.

The Warriors might be without Gary Payton II and Klay Thompson has to be considered a question mark on defense for now. Expect Bane to get loose again tonight.

PICK: OVER 17.5 POINTS (-113)


JA MORANT OVER/UNDER 37.5 POINTS, REBOUNDS, AND ASSISTS

After averaging 25.0 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 6.8 assists, Morant just won his second straight Western Conference Player of the Week award. He’s also made multiple plays in the last few games that are among the most athletic things I have ever witnessed on a basketball court, including an absolutely mind-blowing two-handed block in transition against Avery Bradley. 

Morant is transforming into a superstar before our very eyes, and an All-Star Game debut is already a foregone conclusion. Morant has a sky-high usage of 34.5%, 95th percentile among point guards, per Cleaning the Glass, and is a true floor general moving pieces around the board and creating advantages for his team. 

But unlike many point guards in that mold, Morant is an explosive driver and finisher, and he shoots an absurd 65% at the rim despite his slight size. His floor game is just as strong as his impressive offense, and at 38.3% from 3 on the season, defenses can no longer go under in screening action on him. As an offensive player, there simply aren’t any holes in his game.

Bet on Ja making the most of Draymond's absence.

PICK: OVER  37.5 POINTS, REBOUNDS, AND ASSISTS (-113)


KEVON LOONEY OVER/UNDER 7.5 REBOUNDS

Nobody would mistake Kevon Looney for an offensive powerhouse. But what the Warriors need from him, he consistently provides. He’s a really solid defensive center, who screens and rebounds well for his size. He’s in the 88th percentile of offensive rebounders among bigs, per Cleaning the Glass, which is notable for a center who is only 6'9''. 

The Grizzlies, meanwhile, are without Steven Adams, who is a dominant rebounder in his own right. Without Adams on the court, the Grizzlies grab 5.8% fewer boards on the offensive glass and 6.5% fewer on the defensive glass, both among the top on/off marks in the entire NBA.

With Green out, Looney will see even more than his usual share of minutes, and may even close the game. Without Adams, the Grizzlies' rebounding craters, as Jaren Jackson Jr., despite his size and immense skill, has not shown a commitment to rebounding to this point in his career.

PICK: OVER 7.5 REBOUNDS (-106)

Loading...