2019 AFC Divisional Playoff Betting- Indianapolis Colts vs. Kansas City Chiefs

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Jay Ginsbach

January 10th, 2019

The Indianapolis Colts look to continue their winning ways after topping the Houston Texans 21-7 in opening round playoff action last week. The Colts have won 10 of their last 11 games including five straight as they head to Kanas City to take on the AFC’s No. 1 seed. The Chiefs high-powered offense led the league in scoring with 35.3 points per game this season, and the highest scoring game of the playoffs thus far is expected. The total here is the largest in both NFC and 2019 AFC Divisional playoff betting.

2019 AFC DIVISIONAL PLAYOFF BETTING Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs Saturday, January 12th – Arrowhead Stadium– 4:35pm ET Odds: Kansas City -5.5 (57)

Strong chance of rain and snow in Kanas City late Friday night leading into Saturday’s game, and game day has a 50% chance of snow with light winds and near freezing temperatures in the 30’s. Will that be enough to slow the Chiefs' high powered offense that averaged a league-best 35.3 points per game and 6.8 yards per play? Quarterback Patrick Mahomes will be the league MVP after passing for 5,097 yards with an exceptional QB rating of 113.8 and a league-high 50 touchdowns. Colts QB Andrew Luck happened to be second with 39 touchdown passes, so scoring should be expected but the weather is the big factor in the forecast.

The Colts started the season 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS before finishing on a 9-1 SU run to make the playoffs. Indianapolis is also on a 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS run following last week’s dominant playoff win at Houston. The Chiefs have taken the opposite path starting 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS, and finishing 3-3 SU and 1-4-1 ATS with the final week win over the Raiders 35-3 masking their defensive deficiencies. The Chiefs discarded RB Kareem Hunt in early December amid off field domestic issues, but they hung on and dealt with the adversity to win the AFC West in Week 17.

One of the major factors influencing 2019 AFC Divisional Playoff betting is that the Chiefs defense is the worst of the eight playoff teams remaining, allowing 26.3 points per game and 405.5 yards per game at 5.9 yards per play. The run defense is a major concern allowing 152.0 rushing yards per game over their last three contests and an AFC-worst 5.0 yards per rush this season.
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The Colts have balance on offense with RB Marlon Mack among the best rushers to close the regular season, and outstanding QB Luck to take advantage with strong pass protection. Indianapolis rushed for 200 yards in last week’s playoff win, and will have success against the Chiefs. Luck gives them more than that as an exceptional and experienced signal caller that delivers precision passes.

However, the 2019 AFC Divisional Playoff betting line is no longer offering value, though the Colts are clearly capable of pulling the upset. Note too that the Colts played the third easiest (30th) schedule this season according to Sagarin ratings. Kansas City is going to still score their fair share of points with coach Andy Reid getting extra prep and an outstanding play caller. The Chiefs multiple formations, motion and Mahomes executing the play calls will continue to score. Kansas City has scored a touchdown on 50% of their possessions when starting outside their own 20 yard line following an opponent’s punt. Very strong. But over the last six games, the Colts punter has pinned their opponents often with an average field position inside the 20-yard line. Over the total would definitely be in play if not for the weather concerns, but check game day and plan accordingly.

ATS Notes: Kansas City is 0-6 SU at home in recent playoff history, and 1-11 SU in their last 11 post season games. NFL playoff underdogs are on 14-1 ATS the past three seasons including 10-0 ATS in the last 10 playoff games.

2019 AFC Divisional Playoff Betting– Indianapolis Colts +5.5

Fairway Jay is a professional handicapper based out of Las Vegas. He focuses primarily on the four majors along with college football and college basketball. You can follow him on Twitter @FairwayJay.