2020 NFL betting trends: Angry Aaron is powering the Packers
We'e now through five weeks of the 2020 NFL season… well sort of. We still have a shocking Tuesday night football game between the Buffalo Bills and Tennessee Titans that was rescheduled due to players testing positive for COVID-19. Nevertheless, we certainly have a strong set of data to determine how this year is trending.
Let's break down the latest metrics from around the league and determine which trends you should take advantage of as we head into Week 6 of the NFL season.
Time for Unders?
The Over has been absolute fire this season in the NFL as we have mentioned in every single week of this column. However, both the oddsmakers and the defenses may have caught up to the high-scoring nature of this season.
In Week 5, the Over went 6-7 with still one game remaining. The Over went 37-25-1 in the previous four weeks. The average points per game in Week 5 was down to 50.5 points per game from 52.5 the week before. However, that number is still high, which tells you how much the oddsmakers have adjusted their game totals.
We talked about how successful the 7-point tease has been this season hitting 53 of the 63 Overs before this week. Well, now may be the time to start teasing the other direction. In Week 6, if you teased every total 7 points towards the Under, you would have hit eight of the 13 games.
Belichick does not lose two in a row
Since the Patriots and Broncos game moved from this past week to next Sunday, we can apply exactly the same stats to this week’s column.
In a previous column, we discussed how Belichick is unreal following a loss. Since 2004, the Patriots are 41-15 ATS following a loss. They are also 115-59-6 ATS against teams that missed the playoffs the year before. Add on top of that, they are 105-64-4 against opponents outside of their division. Combine games against teams that missed the playoffs and non-divisional opponents and they are 65-25-1 ATS.
The Denver Broncos meet all of these criteria. The Broncos have also failed to cover in their last five meetings that took place in New England.
The NFC East division has had a rough go during the 2020 NFL season thus far. The combined record between all four teams is a miserable 4-15-1. If you take away games between two teams in this division, they are an even worse 2-13-1.
In Week 6, there is one divisional game between the Washington Football Team and the New York Giants. However, the Philadelphia Eagles host the Baltimore Ravens, while the Dallas Cowboys host the Arizona Cardinals. In those non-divisional games, the NFC East is 3-12-1 ATS.
Make money on Minnesota
The Vikings are 1-4 and have been extremely disappointing if you're a fan. However, if you're a bettor, they are 3-2 ATS and in a great spot in Week 6.
The Vikings host the Atlanta Falcons, who are 0-5 and just fired their head coach on Sunday. Since Mike Zimmer took over the Vikings, they are 30-16-1 ATS at home in the regular season. They are also 36-20-1 ATS as favorites and 45-18-1 ATS outside of their division. When you combine all three of these into one game, as they have this Sunday, the Vikings are 19-4-1 ATS. You can't ask for much better numbers than that.
Aaron Rodgers has come out strong in this season starting 4-0 with MVP-like numbers. He's averaging 303.5 passing yards per game, and has 13 touchdowns and no interceptions. This is all coming after the Packers selected a quarterback in the first round of the NFL Draft, and Rodgers was left outside the Top 10 of the NFL Top 100 players list of 2020. Angry Aaron is a real thing.
The Packers are already 4-0 ATS this season, but they have another trend in their favor here. They are coming off a bye and Rodgers excels in these spots. In his career, Rodgers is 8-2-1 ATS after an extra week of rest in the regular season.
In a previous article, we discussed how betting against Brady has been a moneymaker in recent history. He is 4-10-1 ATS in his last 15 games overall.