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49ers vs. Packers: NFL Divisional Round betting odds, preview, and pick

Profile Picture: Robert Criscola

January 18th, 2022

After a hard-fought victory over the Dallas Cowboys, the San Francisco 49ers were rewarded with a Saturday night showdown against the NFC’s No. 1 seed, the Green Bay Packers.

Will the momentum carry over into Lambeau Field for the 49ers, or will a rested Aaron Rodgers and company prove too good to topple? Let’s start finding out as we dig into the matchup to determine our best bet.

San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers, 8:15 p.m. ET, FOX

Sun, January 23 2022, 1:15 AM

GB Packers

Moneyline

-265

Spread

-6

Total

O 47.5

SF 49ers

Moneyline

+210

Spread

+6

Total

U 47.5

49ers can match Packers’ firepower on offense

It may seem hard to believe when you compare the résumés of the quarterbacks, but the Packers averaged only 5.5 more passing yards per game than the 49ers this season, and just 1.4 more points per game.

San Francisco more than makes up for the disparity between Jimmy Garoppolo (20-12 touchdown-interception ratio) and Rodgers (37-4 touchdown-interception ratio) in the running game. The Niners have rushed for 127.4 yards per game this year (seventh in the NFL), while the Packers have mustered just 111.8 (18th).

Elijah Mitchell has been the principle ball-carrier for the 49ers, averaging 4.7 yards per carry on 207 attempts. He was excellent in the Wild Card round, rushing for 96 yards and a touchdown on 27 carries.

But the emergence of wide-out Deebo Samuel as a frequent handoff threat has given San Francisco’s offense new life as the season has progressed. Samuel managed only 38 receiving yards against the Cowboys when last seen, but ran for 72.

This “backfield” combination is just as potent as Green Bay’s, comprised of Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon. This will be crucial in a contest that’s expected to see single-digit temperatures.

San Fran’s defense has shut opponents down

Another vital ingredient in the Niners winning five of their last six overall has been their steadfast defense.

This unit has surrendered more than 300 total yards just twice in that span despite taking on four playoff teams, all while registering 23 sacks. Only one of those opponents managed more than 20 points.

San Francisco has allowed fewer than 100 yards rushing in nine of their last 10 games, so it appears as though Rodgers will have to do a lot of heavy lifting in this one. He doesn’t often get baited into mistakes, but the 49ers have forced 19 interceptions this year, tied for the most of the eight remaining playoff teams with the Buffalo Bills.

49ers vs. Packers injury report

San Francisco 49ersGreen Bay Packers
Nick Bosa: Questionable (concussion)
Marquez Valdes-Scantling: Questionable (back)
Ambry Thomas: Questionable (knee)
David Bakhtiari: Questionable (knee)
Marcell Harris: Questionable (Achilles)
Jaire Alexander: Questionable (shoulder)
Jordan Willis: Doubtful (ankle)

49ers and Packers betting trends

  • The 49ers are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games played in January
  • The 49ers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as an underdog
  • The Packers are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight-up loss
  • The Packers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games
  • The Under is 6-1 in the 49ers’ last seven playoff games
  • The Over is 7-0 in the Packers’ last seven playoff games

The verdict

This game could come down to red-zone execution, and the 49ers’ top-ranked offense by red-zone touchdown percentage (67.3%) takes on the Packers’ 28th ranked stoppers in the corresponding category (66%). Bettors should side with San Francisco as a live underdog.

Score prediction: 49ers 24, Packers 20

NFL pick: 49ers +6


49ers vs. Packers pick powered by The Quant Edge

Our predictive engine is calling for the Packers to win, and the game to go Over the projected total.


 

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