49ers vs. Titans: The best Jimmy Garoppolo prop bets for TNF
After a rough start to the season the San Francisco 49ers have finally turned the corner, and are 5-1 in their last six games. They’re right in the hunt for a playoff spot, and now face the Tennessee Titans, who are in real danger of losing the top spot in the AFC South. After going 8-2 and beating the Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs, and Los Angeles Rams, the Titans have started spiraling. Star running back Derrick Henry went down, and now Tennessee is 9-5, having won just one of its last four games.
Jimmy Garoppolo has the chance to inflict more punishment on the Titans in TNF as we kick-off Week 16 of the season. We've examined the matchup closely and have the three best Jimmy G prop bets below.
Fri, December 24 2021, 1:20 AM
Over/Under 235.5 Passing Yards
Garoppolo's passing yards have varied wildly since the 49ers came off their Week 6 bye. In four of those nine games he has thrown for 296 yards or more, and in the other five it’s been 235 yards or less – including three efforts where he didn’t clear 182. That makes this line fraught with danger for bettors, especially given how San Francisco likes to run the ball.
Garoppolo is averaging 244 yards per game this season, and has the highest yards per attempt (8.5) of any player in the NFL. His yards gained per pass completion is also a league high 12.6, and his passing yards average goes up to 266 on the road.
Jimmy Garoppolo on leading NFL in yds/attempt:— KNBR (@KNBR) December 21, 2021
"[YPA] isn't gonna dictate winning and losing. It's more about 3rd down, red zone. I think those are a quarterback's true stats, when the money's on the line.
As long as we're winning games, I could care less what the stats are." pic.twitter.com/wVGJ1fFxpF
While the 49ers like to run, they may be forced to use Jimmy G’s arm a bit more on Thursday as the Titans have stuffed plenty of opposition running games. The New England Patriots’ 105 yards on the ground against them in Week 12 was the only time in the least nine games the Titans have let a team run for more than 100 yards against them, and last week we saw Najee Harris held to just 18 yards on 12 carries.
Running backs average just 65.3 yards per game and 3.8 yards per attempt against Tennessee. This feels like a game where Jimmy G is going to have to throw. The Titans have given up at least 250 yards of offense to the opposition in 64% of their games this season, and this is a line Garoppolo can clear.
Over/Under 29.5 Pass Attempts
Garoppolo averages just 28.8 pass attempts per game – making him one of five QBs this season with at least 10 starts and fewer than 30 pass attempts per game. He essentially is the caretaker of a run-heavy offense, and since the Week 6 bye, Jimmy G has dropped under this line in six of the 49ers' nine games.
However, Jimmy G may be forced to throw if the Titans’ defense stuffs the run. This game is set to be close, and this season in the five games that the 49ers have been involved in that were decided by seven points or less, Garoppolo threw an average of 32.8 times per game.
Opponents throw an average of 37.2 times against the Titans – due to them nullifying the run game – that’s a pass play 63% of the time. Indianapolis would be similar to San Francisco in that their rushing play percentage is approximately 47.5%, and Colts QB Carson Wentz threw a season-high 51 times against the Titans in Week 8. While we might not see Jimmy G break the half-century mark, a high tally is possible.
Garoppolo has only played the Titans once before, back in 2017, and he threw 43 times against them, the third highest total of his career. Take the Over on Thursday night.
Over/Under 1.5 Touchdown Passes
The Titans have held five of the last six teams they’ve faced to Under 23 points, and in their last six games have held four teams to Under 1.5 touchdown passes. Jimmy G has thrown two touchdowns in five of his last seven games, and just one of the 49ers' four TDs against Atlanta last week came through the air.
Jimmy G averages just 1.38 touchdowns a game this season, which is less than Joe Flacco, which is a wild statistic. And while that is a completely unfair spin on his numbers, it goes to show how little San Francisco lets Garoppolo operate in the red zone.
46.5% of the 49ers' TDs this year have been on the ground – the seventh highest percentage in the league – and the 49ers are only projected to score 24 points in this matchup.