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Aaron Rodgers leapfrogs Patrick Mahomes in NFL MVP odds

Profile Picture: Andrew Champagne

December 29th, 2020

This season’s race for the NFL’s Most Valuable Player award has been heavily scrutinized since the moment the 2020 season kicked off. During a torrid September stretch, fans were reminded, ad nauseam, that Russell Wilson had never received a single MVP vote.

As he cooled off, though, attention went elsewhere, which brings us to Kansas City Chiefs signal-caller Patrick Mahomes. He won this trophy after a spectacular 2018 campaign and appeared to have a stranglehold on this year’s award for most of the season.

Mahomes' stats have been eye-popping

Through 15 games, his statistics are what you’d expect from an all-world athlete guiding a premier offense up and down the field. He’s thrown for 4,740 yards through 15 games, with 38 touchdowns and just six interceptions. Anything close to his usual output in Sunday’s season finale at home against the Chargers would give him his second 5,000-yard campaign, which would also earn him the distinction of being just the second quarterback with multiple 5,000-yard seasons (the other is Drew Brees, who has five).

Rodgers takes over the top spot

Up until this past week, Mahomes was favored in the race for the MVP award. This changed after Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers turned in a virtuoso performance Sunday night in the snow against the Tennessee Titans. After throwing for four touchdowns in a 40-14 rout (bringing his season total to a league-high 44), Rodgers is favored at odds of -335, with Mahomes at +300.

MVP 2020/2021

Mon, February 1 2021, 1:00 AM

Rodgers, Aaron

-250

Mahomes, Patrick

+225

Allen, Josh (Bills)

+1200

Adams, Davante

+10000

Henry, Derrick

+10000

Brady, Tom

+25000

Wilson, Russell

+25000

Rodgers' accuracy has been outstanding

While Rodgers trails Mahomes by about 700 yards, he’s completed more than 70% of his passes, thrown just five interceptions in 502 attempts, and led the Packers to a 12-3 record. He’s got legitimate credentials, he’s a two-time MVP himself, and Sunday’s game gave him a memorable late-season performance that may weigh heavy on the minds of voters.

Mahomes may see limited action on Sunday

Mahomes could absolutely make that +300 line look like a bargain with a big season finale against the Chargers, a squad he scorched for 302 yards and two touchdowns earlier this year. The question is, will he get the chance to put up those numbers? The Chiefs are firmly locked into the top playoff seed in the AFC, and there’s a real chance head coach Andy Reid sits his starters for some of Sunday’s contest.

It’s a fascinating wrinkle. If you believe Mahomes will play the full game and exploit a beatable Charger defense with big throws to playmakers like Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, then maybe +300 isn’t a terrible price. Kansas City not having anything to play for, though, makes me more than a bit hesitant to recommend that.

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