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Ageless Tom Brady favored to lead NFL in passing yards

Profile Picture: Andrew Champagne

November 3rd, 2021

Tom Brady has spent his 40’s proving age is sometimes just a number. Now 44 years old, he leads the National Football League with 2,650 passing yards through eight games. This puts him on pace for more than 5,600 yards, and bettors have taken notice.

In the wagering for most passing yards during the 2021 campaign, Brady is a significant favorite. His +225 price is considerably shorter than +400 second choice Matthew Stafford, with Derek Carr and Patrick Mahomes next at +500 and Dak Prescott serving as the +800 fifth choice.

NFL Passing Yards Leader Odds

PlayerOdds
Tom Brady
+225
Matthew Stafford
+400
Derek Carr
+500
Patrick Mahomes
+500
Dak Prescott
+800

Brady has a surplus of weapons at his disposal

+225 is by no means a juicy price, but consider the facts. Brady has had a world-class offense built around him with weapons at every skill position. Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown, and Rob Gronkowski are world-class players at their positions, and running backs Leonard Fournette, Ronald Jones, and Giovani Bernard can all catch and run.

As a result, Brady’s 2,650 passing yards are considerably best at the near-halfway point of the season, and Matthew Stafford is the only other quarterback with more than 2,400 yards (he has 2,477, nearly 200 yards behind Brady). It isn’t impossible that Brady gets caught, but he’s a logical favorite for any number of reasons.

Don't overlook Joe Burrow

If you’re looking for a giant price to shake things up, I’d recommend an option further down the page. Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow has been a revelation this season, largely due to a year of experience and the emergence of rookie sensation Ja’Marr Chase.

Burrow’s 2,215 yards to date put him sixth in the league, but there are reasons to take a flyer at his +1700 price. His nine yards per attempt are second only to Stafford (who averages 9.1), and he’s sixth in yardage despite being 22nd in attempts.

If the Bengals let Burrow loose or are in situations where they need to move the ball downfield quickly, the second-year signal-caller could have every chance to move up the passing yardage leaderboard.

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