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Bears vs. Buccaneers: NFL Week 7 betting odds, preview, and pick

Profile Picture: Dan Halverson

October 22nd, 2021

22-year-old rookie Justin Fields will face off against 44-year-old legend Tom Brady this Sunday as the Chicago Bears head south to take on the defending Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers. 

The home team is 5-1 on the season but just 2-4 against the spread, while the visiting Bears are 3-3 straight-up and 3-3 against the spread. The Bears are coming off a home loss to the Green Bay Packers while the Bucs have a couple extra days’ preparation following a win against the Philadelphia Eagles last Thursday night.

Let’s break down the game, beginning with the latest betting odds.

Sun, October 24 2021, 8:25 PM

TB Buccaneers

Moneyline

-670

Spread

-12.5

Total

O 47

CHI Bears

Moneyline

+460

Spread

+12.5

Total

U 47

Brady Watch

Tom Brady currently has 598 career passing touchdowns, most in NFL history, and with just two more he could accomplish a milestone that the stadium AV team could probably have some fun with.

While such a feat would obviously be a testament to his career accomplishments, it would come as Brady continues to dominate the game even as one of its eldest statesmen. Brady is currently leading the league in completions and yards, which is an impressive feat given his peers throughout the league and the offensive firepower that exists on other rosters.

Brady is currently ranked first by Pro Football Focus, and with an elite defense complimenting him it is a bit surprising that the Bucs have only covered two spreads thus far. Brady is still protecting the ball like he always has with just a 1.1% interception rate and 68.5% completion percentage, and with the number of weapons at his disposal in Tampa Bay this could end up being one of Brady’s greatest single seasons in a storied career full of amazing ones.

Bears vs. Buccaneers Injury Report

Chicago BearsTampa Bay Buccaneers
LB Khalil Mack: Questionable (foot)
TE OJ Howard: Questionable (ankle)
S Tashaun Gibson: Questionable (hip)
TE Rob Gronkowski: Questionable (ribs)
WR Allen Robinson: Questionable (ankle)
WR Antonio Brown: Questionable (ankle)
WR Darnell Mooney: Questionable (groin)
LB Lavonte David: Questionable (ankle)

Bears and Buccaneers Betting Trends

  • The Bears are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as an underdog
  • The Bears are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games on the road against a winning team
  • The Under is 5-0 in the last five Bears games
  • The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings between these teams
  • The Bucs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games

Efficient Offense vs. Inefficient Offense

The Bears defense has more talent than they probably receive due to the 3-3 record, but it spends more time on the field than it should because of the Bears’ bad offense.

Justin Fields and the offensive line are not good, and the result is a team that is dead last in the NFL in yards per play. The Bucs are fifth in yards per play, and with Brady leading the way they can almost guarantee a level of consistency that many teams cannot. The ceiling for this Bears' offense likely comes in below the Bucs’ floor, and that is being represented by the large spread in this game.

While the Bucs have a number of key names on the injury report, several of those key players should still make the field, and when they do, they are simply far more efficient offensively than the visiting Bears. The Bucs will outscore their opposition in this game and pull away in the second half.

Score prediction: Buccaneers 27, Bears 17

NFL Week 7 Pick: Buccaneers -12.5

Bears vs. Buccaneers pick powered by The Quant Edge

Our predictive engine is calling for the Buccaneers to win outright and for the Bears to cover. The total is expected to go Under 47 points.

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