Bears vs. Packers: The best player prop bets for SNF
The Bears and Packers rivalry is one of the best in football, so seeing the two face off at Lambeau Field on a December night on primetime is just an absolute winner.
The Bears are 4-8, and have won just one of their last seven games. Fans want head coach Matt Nagy’s head on a stick, and it won’t help if Chicago is embarrassed on SNF. Meanwhile, the Packers are coming off the bye in cruise control, as they’re 9-3 and ranked No. 2 in the NFC.
When these sides met in Week 6, Green Bay ran out 24-14 winners to take Nagy’s record against the Packers to 1-6. With the sides set to go toe-to-toe again on Sunday, here are the best player prop bets.
Mon, December 13 2021, 1:20 AM
Aaron Rodgers: Over/Under 257.5 Passing Yards
A-Rod was quick to remind Chicago that he owns them last time these teams played, and to be frank he absolutely does. Rodgers’ record against the Bears is 21-6, and he’s thrown 57 touchdowns against them – more than he’s thrown against any other team. He does own them, but I’m still backing the Under here.
Rodgers threw for a combined 692 yards in his two games before the bye, and it’s not always the smartest move to bet against him on primetime, but there’s enough doubt in my mind that I think the Under is the play.
Rodgers is averaging 262 passing yards per game this season, but since he became the Packers’ starting quarterback in 2008, he’s had a below-average game in 58% of his matches straight off a bye week. His average passing yards after a bye is just 244, and he’s failed to clear 260 yards in four of his last five.
Aaron Rodgers' Last Five Games After A Bye Week
|Game||Passing Yards||Vs. Rodgers' Season Average|
@ Tampa Bay (2020)
@ San Francisco (2019)
@ L.A. Rams (2018)
vs N.Y. Giants (2016)
@ Denver (2015)
Despite the fact he has dominated the Bears, Rodgers has failed to throw for more than 240 yards against them in each of his last five tries. Earlier this season, the Bears held him to just 195 yards through the air, and A-Rod’s average passing yards against them in 12 games at Lambeau Field is just 239 yards.
The Bears boast the sixth-best pass defense in the league, giving up just 208 passing yards per game. The Rams and the 49ers are the only sides this season to rack up more than 260 passing yards against Chicago, who have kept Kyler Murray (123 yards) and Tom Brady (211 yards) relatively quiet along the way.
David Montgomery: Over/Under 60.5 Rushing Yards
Montgomery returned from a knee strain in Week 9, and his workload has steadily increased since then. He’s averaged 16 rushing attempts per week since his return, and last week ran 21 times for 90 yards in the Bears' loss to the Cardinals.
He was banged up after that match and appeared on the injury report, but he was practicing in full again towards the end of the week, and should see plenty of work in primetime.
In his career, Montgomery has had 19 games with at least 16 rushing attempts, and he’s cleared this 60.5 line in 15 of them (79%). He's averaged 85 rushing yards per game across those 19 contests.
There are only six players in the NFL who have averaged more rushing yards per game than Montgomery this season (70.8), and he’s averaging 4.2 yards per attempt. Despite the Packers giving up just 102.5 rushing yards per game (eighth in the NFL), they rank 17th in opposition yards per attempt (4.3).
Montgomery missed this fixture earlier this year, but he cleared 60 yards in both games last season. With another substantial workload coming his way, he looks set to top this line again.
Cole Kmet: Over/Under 32.5 Receiving Yards
Kmet is seeing plenty of attention in Chicago, but not even his 19% target share can convince me to take the Over here.
Despite averaging 5.3 targets per game on the season, Kmet has fallen under 24 receiving yards in half of his games. The second-round draft pick has had between three and eight targets in every game when Justin Fields has been under center, at an average of five per game, but his average yards in that time is just 34.6 yards per contest.
Kmet’s average depth of target this year is just 8.5 yards, and now he lines up against a Packers defense that's allowed just 219 passing yards per game (ninth in the NFL).
It looks set to be a tough night for Fields, who is back under center for Chicago, and that’s going to have a knock-on effect on Kmet. The Packers have allowed just 48.7 yards per game to tight ends this year, and only 9.4 yards per reception.
Kmet is averaging 10.1 yards per reception this season, and caught four balls for 49 yards against Green Bay in Week 6. But given how the Packers' defense has stepped up a level, it’s hard to see Fields and his receiving corps having much joy.