Bengals vs Titans: the best player prop bets for the Divisional Round
The Cincinnati Bengals managed to snap their eight-game, 31-year postseason losing streak, as they overcame the Las Vegas Raiders, 26-19, last week.
Now, the Bengals will look to keep that roll going as they face the No. 1 seed in the AFC, the Tennessee Titans.
Sat, January 22 2022, 9:30 PM
The Titans are eagerly awaiting news on the health of star running back Derrick Henry, who we haven’t seen since Week 8. He had surgery on November 1 for a metatarsal stress fracture, but his return would be a significant boost against a banged-up Bengals defensive line.
Tennessee are a 3.5 favorite at home, but can the Titans put the brakes on Burrow and Cincinnati’s high-powered offense?
Here are the best prop bets for the Divisional Round game.
Joe Burrow: Over/Under 277.5 Passing Yards
Burrow is on a hot streak, and you’d have to be a braver man than me to fade him in the player props this week.
How much of a hot streak, you ask? Well, in the last three games (against the Ravens, Chiefs, and Raiders), Burrow threw for 1,215 yards, 10 touchdowns, and zero interceptions. That’s the first time in NFL history a QB has thrown for more than 1,200 yards, 10 touchdowns, and no interceptions in a three-game span.
There’s a very good reason this kid was the No. 1 pick in the 2020 NF Draft.
Burrow is on a roll and now gets to take on a Titans passing offense that ranked 25th in the league during the regular season, allowing opposing quarterbacks an average of 263.8 yards per game.
Burrow ranks third in the league for passing yards per game during the season (288.2), and no QB averages more yards per attempt (8.9) than Burrow.
He is in electric form, and this Titans defense has plenty of holes in it for Burrow to exploit. "Joey Franchise" has topped 278 yards four times in his last six games, and in games this season when the final margin has been seven points or fewer, Burrow has averaged 32 pass attempts and 288 yards per game.
This game is projected to be close enough, with the Bengals a 3.5-point road dog, which should mean Burrow will continue to keep chucking, and keep that hot streak going.
Ryan Tannehill: Over/Under 235.5 Passing Yards
Henry finished the year with 937 rushing yards, ranked ninth in the NFL, despite only playing eight games. If you analyze on a per-game basis, Henry’s 117.1 yards per game easily topped the NFL rushing charts, with Jonathan Taylor (106.5) the only other man over 90 yards per game.
If Henry is anywhere near full fitness and suits up, the Titans will lean on him, no doubt. Even without him, the Titans averaged the most rushing attempts per team in the NFL and will try to nullify Burrow’s explosiveness by controlling the clock and keeping him off the field.
This all points to a quiet night for Ryan Tannehill. The Titans QB has fallen under this line seven times in the last nine games, and in five games against the Bengals, Tannehill has never cleared this line.
He has averaged just 219.6 yards per game this season and averaged just 7.0 yards per attempt on the season.
The Bengals have a beat-up offensive line that looks vulnerable to the run game, and in the final four games of the regular season, they ranked 26th in the league against the run, giving up 522 yards on the ground.
Last week, Josh Jacobs racked up 83 yards on just 13 carries (a season-high average of 6.4 yards per attempt), and the Titans may look to exploit this with either Henry or D'Onta Foreman.
Backing the Under on Tannehill looks a smart move.
Ja’Marr Chase: Over/Under 79.5 Receiving Yards
There aren’t enough superlatives to use about Ja’Marr Chase. The rookie has been smashing Bengal franchise records all season, now holding the rookie record for most receiving TDs (13), as well as the most receiving yards in a season (1,455) and most receiving yards in a game (266) by any Bengals player.
Would his first playoff game bring any nerves? Emphatically, no. Chase hauled in nine of his 12 targets for 116 yards, as he torched the Raiders secondary last week.
Chase has averaged 85.6 yards per game this season, behind only Cooper Kupp, Davante Adams, Justin Jefferson, and Deebo Samuel. Over his last four games, he’s hauled in 29 of his 38 targets (76.3%) for a whopping 533 yards (133 yards per game).
The Titans have given up 188.8 yards per game to wide receivers (ranked 31st in the NFL), and on the season Chase has had 43% of all the receiving yards among the Bengals WRs. He has had double-digit targets in three of his last four games and as Burrow’s form has peaked, Chase is getting all the rub.
Danny Amendola (Week 18, 113 yards) and Deebo Samuel (Week 16, 159 yards) both showed how vulnerable the Titans secondary is toward the end of the season, and there’s no reason to think Chase won’t do similar. The rookie is a bonafide star, and it makes sense that if Burrow is going to have a big game, it’s all going to come through Chase.