Biggest Week 1 NFL Favorites Cost Bettors

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TwinSpires Staff

September 11th, 2018

by Fairway Jay
Week 1 NFL betting proved again how difficult it can be to predict winners in pro football. In fact, just picking straight up winners is tough enough. Most of the betting public loves to bet on the best teams, but they learned a costly lesson during opening weekend when it came to leaning on Week 1 NFL favorites. Many bettors also love to bet against the perceived bad teams, which is often the losing teams from last season. Yet betting on non-playoff teams in Week 1 when playing against playoff teams from last year is a 58% winning ATS angle on over 100 plays the past decade.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pulled off the biggest Week 1 surprise by shocking the Saints 48-40. Survivor pool players that picked the biggest betting favorite New Orleans (-10) watched in shock as the Bucs buried the largest of all Week 1 NFL favorites . It was no fluke, as the Buccaneers piled up a week high 529 yards and a sensational 8.5 yard per play. Tampa Bay did not have any turnovers in knocking off their division rival.

This game in particular had a huge impact on survivor pools where many lost at least 40% of their players in Week 1 when the Saints were upended – which is good for others that picked Baltimore (-8) in the Ravens romp over the Bills 47-3, or were lucky enough to survive with Green Bay. The Packers overcame a 20-0 deficit to beat the Bears 24-23 in the gift wrap game of the week by Chicago. The Bears easily covered the spread as a 7.5-point underdog.

Unfortunately, another of the NFC North's Week 1 NFL favorites suffered an embarrassing loss under the Monday Night lights. Detroit was stuffed at the point of attack as the Jets rushed for a week-high 169 yards in sending the Lions and first year coach Matt Patricia to a 48-17 loss in Detroit.

Looking ahead to Week 2, the biggest favorites are:

Los Angeles Rams (-12.5) at Arizona Cardinals New Orleans Saints (-8.5) at Cleveland Browns Los Angeles Chargers (-7.5) at Buffalo Bills

At least two of those teams will win their first game of the season, and we'll check back in later this week with further analysis. You can bet on it.