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Bills vs. Chiefs: The best betting props for the AFC Championship Game

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January 21st, 2021

The Kansas City Chiefs will host the Buffalo Bills in the AFC Championship Game on Sunday, in what could be a high-scoring and entertaining contest, with a Super Bowl berth on the line.

The Chiefs won the first meeting of the season back in Week 6, when they limited the Bills offense led by third-year quarterback Josh Allen.

Provided Patrick Mahomes is healthy, the game will feature a matchup of two of the best young quarterbacks in the game, who could be part of the AFC title conversation for years to come. 

Here are the best prop bets for the AFC Championship Game. 

Sun, January 24 2021, 11:40 PM

KC Chiefs

Moneyline

-167

Spread

-3

Total

O 54

BUF Bills

Moneyline

+140

Spread

+3

Total

U 54

Anytime touchdown

Travis Kelce looks nearly unstoppable in this market.

You can make an argument that he is the most dominant offensive player in the NFL, following another brilliant outing against Cleveland in the Divisional Round. 

Kelce’s stat line included eight catches (he has reached that number of receptions seven times in the last nine games), 10 targets (the fifth straight game he’s reached double digits), and 109 yards receiving (the sixth time in nine games he has gone over the century mark). 

He also had a touchdown for the fifth consecutive game.

Kelce is also the team’s leader in targets inside the red zone and inside the opposition’s 10-yard line, according to Football Reference. Of the 13 catches he made in the red zone during the regular season, nine were for touchdowns. Of the eight catches he made inside the 10-yard line, seven went for touchdowns. 

Feel confident that the touchdown streak will continue, even against a good Bills defense.

Pick: Travis Kelce anytime touchdown (-135)


Josh Allen passing yards

We didn’t think Allen would pass for huge numbers in the Divisional Round against Baltimore last week, and we are looking toward the Under once again for total passing yards (305.5). 

The Chiefs gave up an average of under 240 yards passing per game this season. Against Allen and the Bills back in Week 6, Kansas City gave up just 122. The Bills should be a much better team than what they displayed against the Chiefs earlier in the season, and Allen should have a better performance. 

But it will be tough to reach that total this weekend. Keep in mind that weather this time of year could also have an impact.  This weekend, the forecast in Kansas City shows a possibility of rain or snow.

Pick: Josh Allen Under 305.5 pass yards (-115)


Tyreek Hill receiving yards

Tyreek Hill is one of the most explosive receivers in the game and fits in so well as the speedster in the Kansas City offense. 

He may still have a big day against Buffalo, but with his receiving yards total set at 76.5, the Under may be an option to consider. 

Hill’s potential production could be tied to the status of Mahomes, who is going through concussion protocol. Continue to check in on his status as we get closer to game time. 

Hill was held to three catches for 20 yards in Week 6 against the Bills, and he has been held to fewer than 76 yards receiving in three of his last five games.

The Bills defense also doesn’t give up many big plays. They only allowed 44 passes of 20 yards or more during the regular season, which put Buffalo among the top 10 in this category, according to NFL.com. They also only gave up seven passing plays of 40 yards or more, which also put them in the top half of the league. 

The Bills defense will likely guard against the big play. It will be up to the Chiefs coaching staff to find ways to get Hill the ball in areas where he can rip off big plays with his speed.

Lean toward the Under, although it’s likely to be a sweat either way. 

Pick: Tyreek Hill Under 76.5 receiving yards (-135)

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