Bills vs. Chiefs: The best Patrick Mahomes player prop bets

Profile Picture: Robert Criscola

January 23rd, 2022

If the Kansas City Chiefs want to advance to their fourth straight AFC Championship Game, they’ll likely need another outstanding effort from former NFL MVP Patrick Mahomes. 

There are several player props concerning Mahomes’ performance in this Divisional Round tilt with the Buffalo Bills – let’s take a look at three of them.

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs, 6:30 p.m. ET, CBS

Sun, January 23 2022, 11:30 PM

KC Chiefs






O 54.5

BUF Bills






U 54.5

Mahomes Over/Under 2.5 touchdown passes

The Bills have been one of the toughest teams to attack through the air all year long, allowing only 163 passing yards per game. They’ve been particularly stingy in the end zone, allowing a league-best 12 touchdown passes. That does not bode well for those thinking Mahomes will record at least three touchdown passes here.

After throwing at least three touchdowns in his first four games, Mahomes topped two scores only three additional times in the regular season before dropping five touchdowns on the overmatched Pittsburgh Steelers in the Wild Card round.

With both Jerick McKinnon and Clyde-Edwards Helaire in the backfield this week, there will be less pressure on Mahomes to put up touchdowns with his arm, especially deep in the red zone.

NFL pick: Under (-162)

Mahomes Longest Completed Pass Over/Under 36.5 yards

When the Chiefs took on the Bills in Week 5, Mahomes’ longest complete pass was a modest 26 yards. But Buffalo will have a harder time containing Mahomes at Arrowhead Stadium without cornerback Tre’Davious White.

Mahomes has a longest completion of at least 37 yards in nine straight contests, including a 48-yard touchdown pass to Travis Kelce, and a 41-yard completion to Mecole Hardman in last Sunday’s 42-21 triumph over Pittsburgh.

With Tyreek Hill raring and ready to go out wide as well, it’s easy to envision Mahomes breaking off at least one big play through the air on Sunday.

NFL pick: Over (-113)

Mahomes Over/Under 25.5 rushing yards

Mahomes may not call a lot of designed runs, but he’s used his feet to move the chains often enough to give bettors confidence that he’ll exceed 25 rushing yards against the Bills.

The Texas Tech product often picks up nearly half of that total on one scramble alone, as his season features over a dozen runs in the double-digits. Mahomes has averaged 36 rushing yards a game over his last three tilts, and ran for 61 yards on eight carries when he last played Buffalo.

NFL pick: Over (-117)