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Bills vs. Chiefs: The best player prop bets props for SNF

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October 8th, 2021

After a shocking loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Buffalo Bills have gone 3-0 scoring 118 points and conceding just 21. They have the strongest defense in the league on a point per game basis, while the Josh Allen-led offense isn't half bad either. The Bills have racked up close to twice as many yards as their opponents in their opening four games, and have had at least four touchdowns in each of their last three.

The Chiefs, meanwhile, had a rare two-game blip, but a 40-33 win over the Eagles brought them back to 2-2. It’s a tale of two sides of the ball for KC, who rank second in the league on offense and 31st on defence. The Chiefs' first four games this year have resulted in an average of 65 points per contest, and this could be another busy night for scoreboard operators at Arrowhead Stadium.

Mon, October 11 2021, 12:20 AM

KC Chiefs

Moneyline

-159

Spread

-3

Total

O 56.5

BUF Bills

Moneyline

+130

Spread

+3

Total

U 56.5

Here are the best player prop bets for Sunday’s big game.

Josh Allen Over/Under 303.5 Passing Yards

The Chiefs give up 292 yards per game through the air, and just let Jalen Hurts and the Eagles throw 32 completions for 387 yards. There are only five teams in the NFL that concede more passing yards per game than Kansas City, which is not good if you’re a Chiefs fan.

That is, however, music to the ears of Josh Allen, who is averaging 6.7 yards per attempt and 264 yards per game this season.

That total might initially strike you as low, but that includes two blowout wins (35-0 vs Miami and 40-0 vs Houston) where he completed 20 passes or less. He's going to be asked to do far more here against the Chiefs, and he has plenty of options to aim for.

The Chiefs are giving up a monster 8.3 yards per attempt to opposing QBs this season, and their opponents are throwing on average 35 times per game to keep up with Patrick Mahomes & Co.

Allen's busy workload and the chance of a deep shot - five of his 20 completions against Houston went for 20 yards or more - makes the Over bet here look very tempting in a game where we expect to see fireworks.

Pick: Over 303.5 Passing Yards (-114)


Clyde Edwards-Helaire Over/Under 52.5 Rushing Yards

Clyde Edwards-Helaire's season has done a u-turn already and we are only through four weeks. In the opening two matches he racked up just 89 yards on 27 carries for an average of 3.3 yards per run. But in the last two games he's gone for 202 yards on 31 carries for a staggering 6.5 yards per run. His efficiency has basically doubled!

That is in part due to the insane talent we know he has, but also a great job from the Chiefs' offensive line, who opened up gaps for him time and again against the Eagles last week as CEH put up 102 yards on the ground.

The Bills will be harder to move, as they've given up just 51 yards per game to opposing running backs - the fourth best mark in the league. But that may have to do with the opponents they've faced so far, and a better barometer might be the 97 yards per game they allowed during the season last year. That included a game against the Chiefs when CEH ran 26 times for 161 yards.

The Bills are undoubtedly better defensively this time around, but CEH is coming off back-to-back 100+ rushing games and the Chiefs are utilizing him effectively. Expect to see him get 12 to 14 touches here and squeak over 53 yards.

Pick: Over 52.5 Rushing Yards (-117)


Dawson Knox Over/Under 33.5 Receiving Yards

No team in the NFL has given up more yards to the TE position than the Chiefs this year. Kansas City has conceded 348 yards to opposing tight ends at an average of 87 yards per game. Opposing tight ends have caught 87% percent of their passes against the Chiefs, and Kansas City gives up an eye-popping 10.5 yards per pass attempt to opposing tight ends.

Step forward Dawson Knox!

He has played 74% of Buffalo's offensive snaps and is increasingly becoming a key cog in the Josh Allen machine. The signal caller has looked for Knox 13 times in the last two games, giving him a target share of 20% on a high-powered offense.

A lot of these touches are coming in the red zone, which are valuable for the Bills, but don't equate to a whole lot of yardage - Knox averages just 36 yards a game this season.

But the Chiefs are giving up 13 yards per reception to opposing tight ends, and Knox has at least four receptions in three of the four matches this season. This is a fantastic opportunity for him to tally a season-high performance in receiving yards.

Pick: Over 33.5 Receiving Yards (-112)

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