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Patriots vs. Bills: The best player prop bets for MNF

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December 4th, 2021

A huge game in the AFC East takes place on Monday Night Football, with the winner of Bills vs. Patriots set to move into the top spot in the division. New England currently holds that position at 8-4, but 7-4 Buffalo could leapfrog them with a win on the road.

Mac Jones has led the Patriots on a six-game winning streak, and they’re arguably the hottest team in the NFL right now. Let's run down the best three player props for MNF.

Tue, December 7 2021, 1:15 AM

BUF Bills

Moneyline

-148

Spread

-3

Total

O 42

NE Patriots

Moneyline

+120

Spread

+3

Total

U 42

Stefon Diggs: Over/Under 61.5 Receiving Yards

Stefon Diggs is a fantastic receiver who is fortunate to be playing with a quarterback who can create magic. But this is not a game where I expect to see Diggs dominate. It has nothing to do with him, but everything to do with the Patriots.

New England ranks third in the league this year against the pass, giving up only 200.9 yards per game. They've been even better over their last five games, averaging just 139 opponent passing yards, and not allowing a team to rack up more than 207 yards against them through the air, 

New England has given up just 131.5 yards per game to receivers this year (fourth in the NFL), and no team allows fewer receptions to opposition wide-outs than the Patriots (an average of 10.4 per game). Of the 12 leading wide receivers who have faced the Patriots this season, only Mike Evans (75) and Keenan Allen (77) have managed to get over the 61.5-yard mark.

WR1 vs. New England Patriots in 2021

WR1ReceptionsYards
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (Titans)
2
25
Russell Gage (Falcons)
5
49
Jarvis Landry (Browns)
4
26
DJ Moore (Panthers)
3
32
Keenan Allen
6
77
Corey Davis (Jets)
4
47
Amari Coper (Cowboys)
5
55
Brandin Cooks (Texans)
3
23
Mike Evans (Buccaneers)
7
75
Marquez Callaway (Saints)
4
41
Elijah Moore (Jets)
4
47
Jaylen Waddle (Dolphins)
4
61

Add in the fact that Diggs isn’t quite as red-hot as last year, and there is cause for concern. His receptions per game have dropped from 7.94 to 6.09, and he’s averaging roughly 20 fewer yards per game than he was in 2020.

Diggs has beaten this line in eight of his 12 matches this season, but he’s yet to come up against a defense like this one.

Pick: Under 61.5 Receiving Yards (-113)

Damien Harris: Over/Under 53.5 Rushing Yards

Damien Harris is now firmly in a two-headed beast in the Patriots backfield, with rookie Rhamondre Stevenson eating into his workload at a rapid rate.

You only have to go back to Week 8 to see Harris had a 74% share of the touches over Stevenson, but that has slowly evaporated. It was a 60-40 split in Week 9, and then in Weeks 11 and 12, it has been 55-45 to put beyond doubt the fact it’s a committee.

Both players have had 21 touches over the last two weeks, and Stevenson has outperformed Harris, 115 yards to 96.

We can expect Harris to only get around 10 or 11 carries against the Bills. That’s not a good thing when your season average is 4.2 yards per carry, and the Buffalo defense has crushed the run game so far. The Bills have given up just 76.6 yards per game to running backs this year, and allowed them to go for just 3.9 yards per attempt

To beat this line, Harris is likely to need 15 rushing attempts or more – something that isn’t likely given Stevenson’s recent performances.

Pick: Under 53.5 Rushing Yards (-117)

Josh Allen: Over/Under 239.5 Passing Yards

Josh Allen has so much quality, he might make this line look very silly on primetime and leave me with egg on my face. But this Patriots defense is so legit, I have to take the Under.

Allen has only failed to reach 240 passing yards twice in 11 games this season, but I think he’s about to have an off night on Monday. That’s not a swipe at Allen, but a compliment to just how good this New England pass defense has been.

They’ve given up just 5.6 net yards per pass attempt this year. Dak Prescott put on a clinic when he threw for 445 yards against New England in Week 6, but since then, no quarterback has topped 238 yards against them.

Josh Allen had his problems against New England up until last year. He had never cleared more than 217 yards against them until Week 16 of 2020, when he threw for a huge 320 yards and four TDs in a 38-9 win in Gillette Stadium. Do you think Bill Belichick has forgotten? No, me neither. He’ll have a plan for Allen.

Josh Allen vs. New England Patriots

YearAttemptsCompletionsYards
2018
41
20
217
2019
28
13
153
2019
26
13
208
2020
18
11
154
2020
36
27
320

This is going to be a tight game, and the Patriots on average allow the third-fewest completions to the opposition (19.8) per game. Allen averages 11.2 yards per completion, but is going to find it tough to maintain that level on primetime.

Pick: Under 239.5 Passing Yards (-113)

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