Bills vs. Saints: Thanksgiving Day betting odds, preview, and pick

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November 23rd, 2021

Two teams with playoff aspirations looking to get back in the win column will collide at Caesars Superdome on Thanksgiving night as the Buffalo Bills visit the New Orleans Saints.

Josh Allen and company are an uninspiring 2-3 over their last five games, and are fresh off an embarrassing 41-15 loss to the Indianapolis Colts in which they allowed five touchdowns to Jonathan Taylor. Meanwhile, the Saints are 0-3 with Trevor Siemian starting at quarterback in lieu of Jameis Winston.

Let’s dive into the matchup and see who will come up with a very valuable win on Thursday night, and where bettors should place their money.

Buffalo Bills (6-4) at New Orleans Saints (5-5), 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC

Fri, November 26 2021, 1:20 AM

NO Saints






O 46.5

BUF Bills






U 46.5

Comparing the quarterbacks

It’s hard not to see a significant advantage for the Bills in the quarterback battle, as 2020 MVP finalist Allen squares off with the journeyman Siemian.

Allen has accounted for the sixth-most passing yards in football this year (2,811), and the fifth-most passing touchdowns (21). He’s also completing 65.7% of his throws for 7.4 yards per attempt. Allen should have little difficulty moving the chains through the air against the Saints’ 22nd-ranked pass defense, which allows 252.2 yards per game.

Look for Stefon Diggs – in the Top 10 in receptions (60), yards (773), and touchdowns (six) – to be the preferred target of Allen once more.

Siemian has been doing decently as a game manager, not throwing any interceptions through his first three games prior to his two-INT debacle against the Philadelphia Eagles last Sunday. While his 8-2 touchdown-interception ratio is enviable, his completion rate (56.9%) and yards per attempt (6.4) are not.

Siemian has his work cut out for him against the Bills’ pass defense, which is second in football by yards allowed per game (181.8) as well as interceptions (15).

Bills vs. Saints injury report

Buffalo BillsNew Orleans Saints
Cole Beasley: Questionable (rib)
Alvin Kamara: Questionable (knee)
Spencer Brown: Out (reserve/COVID list)
Mark Ingram: Questionable (knee)
Star Lotulelei: Out (reserve/COVID list)
Marcus Davenport: Questionable (shoulder)
Ryan Ramczyk: Questionable (knee)
Terron Armstead: Questionable (knee/shoulder)

Lights, Kamara, action?

Whatever advantage New Orleans might have in the ground game over the Bills will be mitigated if Alvin Kamara is unable to suit up for a third straight week. Kamara – who missed his team’s last two tilts with a knee injury – has three rushing touchdowns in his last four starts.

Backup Mark Ingram has been doing decently in his second stint with the Saints, but he doesn’t represent the same threat in the passing game that Kamara does. Regardless, Buffalo’s ninth-ranked run stoppers (101.9 yards allowed per game) will be tough to slice through.

The Bills will run the ball just enough with the duo of Devin Singletary and Zack Moss to keep the Saints’ stoppers honest, but don’t expect Buffalo to do much against the NFL’s third-ranked run defense (89.8 yards allowed per game).

Bills and Saints betting trends

  • The Bills are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss of more than 14 points
  • The Bills are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games
  • The Saints are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a home underdog
  • The Under is 8-1 in the Bills’ last nine games following a straight-up loss
  • The Under is 8-0-1 in the Saints’ last nine Thursday games

The verdict

Allen and the Bills’ aerial assault should prove too much for the banged-up Saints to handle. Lay the points with Buffalo.

Score prediction: Bills 24, Saints 16

NFL pick: Bills -4.5

Saints vs. Bills pick powered by The Quant Edge

Our predictive engine is calling for the Saints to win and cover the spread, and the game to go Over the projected total.