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Bills vs. Saints: The best Josh Allen player prop bets for Thanksgiving

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November 24th, 2021

Apparently the Bills' offense isn’t as perfect as we all thought! A fortnight after throwing two interceptions in a 9-6 loss against the Jaguars (!), Allen chucked another two interceptions last Sunday as the Bills were destroyed 41-15 at home by the Jonathan Taylor-inspired Colts.

Josh Allen needs to get the offense back on track quickly as the 6-4 Bills have now lost their lead in the AFC East, and he has the chance to do just that in a primetime game in New Orleans on Thanksgiving. The Saints are on a three-game losing streak and rank 22nd against the pass this season.

Here are the three best Josh Allen player prop bets ahead of Thursday’s main event.

Fri, November 26 2021, 1:20 AM

NO Saints

Moneyline

+205

Spread

+6

Total

O 45.5

BUF Bills

Moneyline

-265

Spread

-6

Total

U 45.5

Over/Under 276.5 Passing Yards

This is a hugely interesting line for Allen, and bettors find themselves in a tricky spot. On one hand, Allen has failed to top 276 yards in three of his last four games and in 60% of games this season. On the other hand, it’s Josh Allen and the Bills offense, right?

Since the start of the 2020 season, Allen has only had four games with fewer total passing yards than he did last week against the Colts (209), and every time he’s recovered to put up a huge number in the next game. Taking those four games, his average bounce-back passing yards tally is 364.

How Josh Allen has bounced back after poor weeks

Poor PerformanceThe Bounce Back
122 Yards vs. Chiefs (2020 Wk 6)
307 Yards @ Jets (2020 Wk7)
154 Yards vs. Patriots (2020 Wk8)
415 Yards vs. Seahawks (2020 Wk9)
157 Yards vs. Chargers (2020 Wk12)
375 Yards @ 49ers (2020 Wk13)
179 Yards @ Dolphins (2021 Wk2)
358 Yards vs. Washington (2021 Wk3)

Allen averages 281.1 passing yards per game this season (ranked eighth in the NFL), and although his yards per attempt average has dropped from 7.9 last season to 7.4 this season, he’s throwing more than ever with 38.2 attempts per game. Only Tom Brady, Patrick Mahomes, and Justin Herbert are throwing the ball more often than Allen.

That’s unlikely to change against the Saints, who have the third best run defense in the league, giving up just 89.8 yards on the ground per game even after they were torched by the Eagles on the ground last week. Before that game they were giving up just 72.9 yards per game on the ground.

Against the pass, however, the Saints have blown hot and cold. Since the bye week, they’ve held the Seahawks, Titans, and Eagles to less than 200 passing yards each, but have also been scorched for 330+ yards by Tom Brady and Matt Ryan.

As disjointed as the Bills have looked on offense, back Allen to return to form on Thanksgiving.

Pick: Over 276.5 Passing Yards (-113)


Over/Under 31.5 Rushing Yards

One of Allen’s greatest weapons is what he can do with his legs, and although we haven’t seen it in the last two weeks vs. the Colts and Jets, there’s been plenty of evidence already this season. Before Week 10, Allen had at least five rushing attempts in eight of the nine games and cleared 32 yards 75% of the time.

In the last two weeks he’s ran a combined total of four times for just 21 yards – something that the Bills will need to change against the Saints.

While their run defense is widely heralded, the Saints aren’t bulletproof. There are eight QBs in the league who average over 25 rushing yards per game this year, and the Saints have faced three of them. On average in those three games, they’ve given up 45 rushing yards per game to the QB at an average of 5.01 yards per carry.

Saints vs. Rushing QBs in 2021

QuarterbackSeason AveragePerformance vs. Saints
Jalen Hurts
56.2 Yards per Game
18 Carries for 69 Yards
Josh Allen
34.0 Yards Per Game
???
Taylor Heinicke
27.6 Yards Per Game
5 Carries for 40 Yards
Daniel Jones
26.8 Yards Per Game
4 Carries for 27 Yards

Allen himself is averaging 5.6 yards per carry this year – his best average since 2018 – and if given the opportunity, can do damage in New Orleans.

Pick: Over 31.5 Rushing yards (-117)


Over/Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns

While the Bills haven’t been at their best in recent weeks, scoring points has never been a problem for them. Buffalo remain the second-highest scorers in the NFL with an average of 29.5 points per game.

Incredibly Allen has thrown for multiple touchdowns in 22 of his last 26 games, dating back to the start of the 2020 season, a success rate of 84.6%. He’s spreading it around this year as well, with eight different Bills players catching a touchdown pass so far and Stefon Diggs, Emmanuel Sanders, and Dawson Knox all have at least four.

The Saints won’t roll over easily, and they’ve frustrated a few teams this season. The Panthers, Bucs, and Falcons are the only teams with multiple TDs through the air against New Orleans this year, and there are only two teams who have given up fewer passing TDs than the Saints (13). The Bills are a top 10 offense in the red zone, scoring a touchdown 63% of the time though, and if this is indeed to be a bounce back game for Allen, it’s going to mean multiple touchdowns.

Pick: Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-190)

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