Bills vs. Saints: The best player prop bets for Thanksgiving

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November 24th, 2021

The suddenly struggling Buffalo Bills will head to the Big Easy for a Thanksgiving Thursday Night Football game between two teams desperate for a win.

The New Orleans Saints come into this one with three consecutive losses since their upset win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Bills have lost three of their last five and are quickly falling from AFC favorites to possibly out of the playoff picture.

Fri, November 26 2021, 1:20 AM

NO Saints






O 45.5

BUF Bills






U 45.5

Let's examine the three best player props to bet ahead of the Thanksgiving primetime matchup between the Bills and Saints.

Josh Allen: Over/Under 32.5 rushing yards

The Saints defense had been excellent against the run all season until last week, when it allowed 242 rushing yards to the Philadelphia Eagles. The Saints still rank third in the league in rushing yards allowed, at 89.8 yards per game.

The Bills have struggled to get any semblance of a run game in this rough five-game stretch. They are only averaging 97.2 rushing yards per game over that span. However, Allen has still found some success in the run game. In fact, he is nearly the leading rusher on the team.

Allen is averaging 34.0 yards per game on the ground and has gone Over this number in six of his 10 games this year.

The Saints, despite their great run defense, have been susceptible to allowing quarterbacks to break free. They have allowed four different quarterbacks to have double-digit rushing yards and two different quarterbacks to go over 40 yards rushing.

This game could be high scoring, and the Bills will need the legs of Allen, along with his arm, to get a win on the road. I like the Over here.

Pick: Over 32.5 rushing yards (-117)

Deonte Harris: Over/Under 3.5 receptions

With Michael Thomas out all season and Tre’Quan Smith out for almost half the season, the Saints have needed a wide receiver to step up and get more catches. Deonte Harris has done well in their absence and is tied for third on the team in targets and second on the team in receptions.

The Bills defense is excellent against the pass, but it has had some trouble in short passes outside the hash marks. Buffalo allows an 83 passer rating on passes between 0-14 yards outside the right hash marks.

Harris has 29% of his targets on the outside between 0-14 yards. He also catches 69% of his targets on the short left and 47% of his targets on the short right.

Harris will likely be the go-to target against this Bills defense, especially if Alvin Kamara misses this game.

Pick: Over 3.5 receptions (+115)

Matt Breida: anytime touchdown scorer

Matt Breida has started to make his presence felt in this Bills offense over the past two games after not playing a single snap in six straight games. Last week he played a season-high 32% of the offensive snaps.

Breida led the team with five carries last week and added two targets out of the backfield. Two weeks ago, he had three targets out of the backfield and scored both on the ground and through the air.

The Saints defense has allowed nine rushing touchdowns and two passing touchdowns to running backs. That means half of the touchdowns the Saints allow come out of the backfield.

I believe there will be multiple touchdowns in this game from players out of the backfield for Buffalo, so give me the best odds on a player that is getting increasingly more run time.

Pick: Matt Breida to score a touchdown (+480)