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Broncos vs. Browns: The best Teddy Bridgewater player prop bets for TNF

Profile Picture: Jeremy Jones

October 21st, 2021

Teddy Bridgewater started the season red-hot with three wins and three impressive passing performances. However, he has now lost three consecutive games, delivering mediocre passing performances in each.

"Teddy Two Gloves" will try to get back on track on Thursday night when the Broncos take on the Cleveland Browns in primetime.

Fri, October 22 2021, 12:20 AM

CLE Browns

Moneyline

-125

Spread

-1.5

Total

O 41

DEN Broncos

Moneyline

+104

Spread

+1.5

Total

U 41

We've examined the matchup closely and have the three best prop bets for Bridgewater below.

Over/Under 19.5 pass completions

This number seems a bit low considering how Teddy has played this year. He is averaging 23.2 completions on 33.0 pass attempts per game this season. That includes an outlier game against Baltimore when Bridgewater only completed seven passes on 16 attempts.

Bridgewater has never played against the Browns before, as he had spent his entire career in the NFC before 2021, and was injured any chance he would have had to play Cleveland previously. The Browns' defense allows exactly 19.5 pass completions per game, but they have the Chicago game to help boost that number.

This game may be a bit low scoring and run-heavy from the Cleveland side, but Denver has shown a willingness to throw the ball in any situation. The only time Denver did not allow Teddy to let it loose, the Broncos lost 23-7, so that will likely not be their game plan tonight. Give me the Over.

Pick: Over 19.5 Pass Completions (-118)

Over/Under 31.5 pass attempts

This one could go hand-in-hand with the previous prop. 19.5 completions on 31.5 pass attempts is a 61.9% completion rate. Bridgewater has a career completion percentage of 66.9% and has a rate of 70.2% this season. Since we like the Over on completions, he at worst would have to have a 64.5% completion percentage for this to go Under.

Teddy is averaging 33 pass attempts per game and has gone Over this number in four of the six games this season. The Browns allow 32.7 pass attempts per game and have allowed more than this number in three of their six games. Two games were against bad passing teams in Chicago and Houston, and the other was when the Browns were getting blown out by Arizona, so the passing game died down.

The numbers here point to the Over since we think the completions will go Over as well and the completion percentage numbers point towards 34 attempts based on Bridgewater's season average.

Pick: Over 31.5 Pass Attempts (-108)


Over/Under 231.5 Passing Yards

Bridgewater is averaging 252.3 passing yards per game this season. This includes that outlier game, where he only threw for 65 yards after getting injured with a concussion. Even in a blowout win over the New York Jets, Teddy threw for 235 passing yards.

The Browns' pass defense is ranked ninth in the NFL, allowing 220.7 passing yards per game. Thursday night games tend to be lower scoring as you get into the meat of the season. However, yards do not necessarily translate to high scoring games.

Bridgewater is averaging 7.6 yards per pass attempt this season. This means to hit this number at that average, he would need 31 pass attempts. Since we already like the Over on 31.5 pass attempts, it only makes sense to take the Over on yards based on his season averages.

Pick: Over 231.5 Passing Yards (-113)

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