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Broncos vs. Steelers: NFL Week 5 betting odds, preview, and pick

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October 5th, 2021

The Denver Broncos were hooked with their first loss of the season in Week 4 when the Baltimore Ravens came to town and beat them 23-7. They’ll have to travel for Week 5, but the Broncos will take on a Pittsburgh Steelers team that’s lost three in a row after an upset victory over the Buffalo Bills in Week 1.

Let’s dive into the matchup and give out our recommended wagers.

Denver Broncos (3-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (1-3), 1:00 p.m. ET, FOX

Sun, October 10 2021, 5:00 PM

PIT Steelers

Moneyline

-115

Spread

-1

Total

O 39.5

DEN Broncos

Moneyline

-106

Spread

+1

Total

U 39.5

Bridgewater can beat Big Ben through the air, if healthy

Denver quarterback Teddy Bridgewater missed the entire second half last Sunday after suffering a concussion. He’s still in concussion protocol, so his status for Week 5 is unknown. But assuming Bridgewater starts, the Broncos would appear to have the edge in the passing game over Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers.

Bridgewater has completed 72.1% of his throws for 8.0 yards per attempt this year, while tossing five touchdowns and no interceptions. Big Ben’s numbers pale in comparison; he’s completing just 64.1% of his passes for only 6.4 yards per attempt, with a 4-4 touchdown-interception ratio. Per ESPN’s QBR, Roethlisberger is the fifth-worst starting signal caller in the NFL this year. 

The Broncos boast the better defense

Denver owns the superior stoppers in this one, as they rank fourth in total defense (267.8 yards allowed per game), while Pittsburgh is 16th (357.8 yards allowed per game).

The Broncos’ advantage becomes even more apparent when one just looks at the passing statistics. Denver is third in opponent passer rating through four games (67.8), while the Steelers are 21st (103.4) in the same span.

Broncos vs. Steelers injury report

Denver BroncosPittsburgh Steelers
Teddy Bridgewater: Questionable (concussion)
Ben Roethlisberger: Questionable (hip)
Melvin Gordon: Questionable (leg)
JuJu Smith-Schuster: Questionable (ribs)
Patrick Surtain II: Questionable (chest)
Chase Claypool: Questionable (hamstring)
Diontae Spencer: Questionable (chest)
Cam Sutton: Questionable (groin)
Kevin Dotson: Questionable (hip)

Broncos and Steelers betting trends

  • The Steelers are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games
  • The Steelers are 0-5-1 ATS in the last six meetings between these two teams
  • The Broncos are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS loss
  • The Broncos are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games
  • The Under is 23-8-1 in the Steelers’ last 32 games played in October
  • The Under is 5-1 in the Broncos’ last six road games

The verdict

These Broncos are much better than the version of themselves they presented in Week 2 of last year in Heinz Field, when then-elite Pittsburgh beat them 26-21. With the Steelers on a downward slope, bettors should side with Denver, assuming Teddy Bridgewater lines up under center. In the event he’s ruled out, the Under becomes even more appealing with two stingy defenses involved.

Score prediction: Broncos 20, Steelers 16

NFL pick: Broncos +1, Under 39.5

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