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Browns vs. Chiefs: The best prop bets for Week 1

Profile Picture: Dan Halverson

September 10th, 2021

One of the most intriguing games of Week 1 of the NFL season will happen on Sunday when the Cleveland Browns visit the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium. The defending AFC Champions are favored by 5.5 points.

We've examined the matchup closely and have the three best prop bets for Browns vs. Chiefs below.

Sun, September 12 2021, 8:25 PM

KC Chiefs

Moneyline

-245

Spread

-5.5

Total

O 54.5

CLE Browns

Moneyline

+195

Spread

+5.5

Total

U 54.5

Chiefs Over/Under 30.5 Points

The Kansas City Chiefs have been offensive juggernauts for years under head coach Andy Reid, and have the consensus top quarterback in the league in Patrick Mahomes.

Accompanying Mahomes are a few new players, however, who have yet to prove themselves playing as a collective unit. The offensive line is completely overhauled, and in a position group that requires cohesion there may be some growing pains. Facing off against Myles Garrett will not make things easier.

The receiving corps is also still seeking their proven No. 2, and will face an upgraded Browns secondary that brought in John Johnson and Troy Hill, and will likely get added depth from improving young players like Grant Delpit, Ronnie Harrison Jr., and Greedy Williams. The Browns’ defense is an upgraded version of the unit that held the Chiefs to 22 points in their divisional playoff game.

Look for the Chiefs to stay in the 20’s and for Under to cash.

Pick: Under 30.5 points (-124)


Browns First Half Spread

Sticking with the idea that the Chiefs may have some work to do before they’re running their normally high-octane offense, let’s take the Browns First Half +3.5

The game line for this game is Chiefs -5.5, so as naturally is the case, the first half line is tilted a bit higher than half that amount for the first half. The key value for this bet is the added hook that gives us a winner if the Browns are within a field goal at the half.

In 2020, the Chiefs won eight coin tosses and deferred all eight times. If the trend holds then the Browns should receive the extra possession of receiving the first kick, and if they score first it will make this wager feel much more comfortable. The Browns should also look to control possession through their power running game and shorten the clock against the potent Chiefs offense, making each point that much more valuable.

Pick: +3.5 (-114)


Browns to win both halves

If you want a prop that offers a really nice payout, take a look at Browns to win both halves at +700. 

If the Chiefs offense isn’t as good as advertised, they may simply be overmatched and open the door for the Browns to control the game with their top-ranked offensive line.

The Browns have PFF’s Np. 1 ranked offensive line and No. 11 ranked defensive line. The Chiefs, meanwhile, are projected to have the No. 22 defensive line and No. 7 offensive line. Chiefs’ defensive lineman Derrick Nnadi and Frank Clark will surely both play, but are listed as questionable. If the Browns’ offensive line is overpowering them through three quarters, it isn't hard to envision that some banged up bodies will succumb to the pressure and give in.

If you like the Browns to pull off the upset, take as much of this +700 as you plan on taking on their +195 moneyline to win the game outright.

Pick: Yes (+700)

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