Buccaneers vs. Colts: NFL Week 12 betting odds, preview, and pick

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November 24th, 2021

The Indianapolis Colts will try to continue their hot run, as they welcome the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday in Week 12.

Sun, November 28 2021, 6:00 PM

IND Colts






O 52.5

TB Buccaneers






U 52.5

Gronk’s return a welcome sight for Brady

After a two-game skid, with road losses to the Saints and Washington Football Team, nobody was happier to see his big tight end return than Tom Brady.

Rob Gronkowski immediately made an impact against the Giants, hauling in seven of his eight targets for 71 yards, after he missed a large portion of the season with cracked ribs and a punctured lung.

Brady threw for 307 yards and a pair of touchdowns in a 30-10 win over the Giants on Monday night.

Mike Evans caught his franchise-record 72nd touchdown but also had a pass go off his hands, which led not only to Brady’s only turnover of the night, but the only touchdown the Giants would score, after they took over at the Tampa Bay five-yard line.

The Bucs defense also held New York to just one third-down conversion for the game, which came on the opening drive. It was a good showing for a unit that had allowed 65 combined points in its previous two games.

Vita Vea could return this week against the Colts, as he was a late scratch with a knee issue. His presence is a key reason why Tampa’s run defense leads the NFL, and he opens things up for the pass rush, as well.

The Buccaneers need to play better on the road, where they have failed to cover the spread in their last six games as a favorite.

Colts hope Taylor can continue to carry them

After starting just 1-4 this season, the Colts have now turned things around, with wins in five of their last six games.

Early losses included a pair of one-possession defeats to playoff contenders Baltimore and the L.A. Rams, but many still wonder if Indy's recent success is due to its first five victories coming against teams with a combined 15-36 record this year.

The Colts silenced many of those doubters last weekend, thanks to running back Jonathan Taylor, whose career day carried the Colts to a stunning 41-15 win in Buffalo.

Taylor rushed for 185 yards and four touchdowns, and added another score on a 23-yard catch from quarterback Carson Wentz. The Colts were also helped out by their defense, who forced four turnovers in the game, including on two of Buffalo’s first three drives.

The Colts scored touchdowns off three of those turnovers, including drives spanning two yards and 24 yards.

The Colts have struggled to maintain leads in close games, having lost three games already this season after they led in the fourth quarter.

However, Wentz is starting to look more comfortable in the offense, and the emergence of the offensive line has been key to the team's turnaround.

The question is, will the Colts be able to open up enough space for Taylor against a Bucs defense that is allowing fewer than 80 yards on the ground per game?

More importantly, will the defense, ranked 23rd in yards allowed per play, be able to keep Brady from moving the ball down the field at will?

Bucs vs. Colts injury report

Tampa Bay BuccaneersIndianapolis Colts
CB Carlton Davis: Questionable (quad)
OG Quenton Nelson: Questionable (ankle)
WR Mike Evans: Questionable (back)
K Rodrigo Blankenship: Out (hip)
LB Devin White: Questionable (quad)
DE Tyquan Lewis: Out (knee)
WR Antonio Brown: Questionable (ankle)
FS Julian Blackmon: Out (Achilles)
NT Vita Vea: Questionable (knee)
WR Parris Campbell: Out (foot)

Buccaneers and Colts Trends

  • The Bucs have failed to cover in their last five road games
  • The Under is 4-1 in Tampa Bay’s last five games
  • The Bucs are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as a road favorite
  • The Colts are 5-2 ATS as an underdog this season
  • The Over is 4-1 in Indy’s last five games
  • The Colts are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games against the Bucs

Defense will star in cross-conference battle

The Bucs are a slight favorite on the road, which does not bode well for them, given their recent history.

The Colts have shown an ability this year to cover as an underdog, but I fear that the spread might be influenced a bit by Taylor’s heroics last week. Therefore, I think the total is the better play here.

The Bucs have scored more than 30 points just once in their last five games (a 38-3 win against the Bears), and Brady is still missing key pieces of the offense. Meanwhile, Indianapolis will likely find it much tougher to run against the Bucs.

A total of 52 points feels far too high, as Tampa Bay has not been reaching the lofty totals in its games this season. I would roll with the Under in this one.

For those seeking a same-game combo, you should pair it with a Buccaneers victory to double your investment.

Score prediction: Tampa Bay 27, Indianapolis 23

Bucs vs. Colts pick: Under 52.5 (-109)

Same-game combo: Under 52.5/Bucs moneyline (+195)

Bucs vs. Colts Pick powered by The Quant Edge

Our predictive engine is calling for the Bucs to win outright and cover the spread.