Buccaneers vs. Eagles: The best Tom Brady player prop bets for TNF

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October 14th, 2021

Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady will meet the Philadelphia Eagles for the eighth time in his 22-year NFL career when he visits Lincoln Financial Field in Week 6 for Thursday Night Football.

Brady is 4-1 against the Eagles in the regular season and won his third of seven Super Bowl titles against the NFC East opponent. Philly also handed Brady one of his three Super Bowl losses, in 2018, when backup quarterback Nick Foles bested Brady's top-seeded New England Patriots, 41-33.

The 44-year-old signal caller has never lost a game in Philadelphia and is favored (-6.5) to defeat the Eagles and second-year quarterback Jalen Hurts.

Let's further examine this NFC battle, as we look at the three best Brady prop bets to wager for Thursday Night Football.

Over/Under 297.5 passing yards

Despite his advanced age for an NFL quarterback, Brady ranks first in the league in passing yards (1,767) and second in touchdown passes (15).

The 14-time Pro Bowler has an assortment of riches at receiver, including wideouts Antonio Brown, Chris Godwin, and Mike Evans, tight ends Rob Gronkowski (out Thursday with a rib injury) and O.J. Howard, plus pass-catching back Leonard Fournette.

The amount of talent on Tampa Bay's roster makes them a fearsome opponent for any team, but on Thursday, the Bucs will confront one of the league's best pass defenses.

The Eagles rank third in passing yards allowed (194.8) but give up the third most rushing yards (142).

The Bucs will switch up their game plan, as a result, and turn more to their rushing attack to expose the Eagles' weaknesses on defense.

Brady threw for 269 yards against his former team, New England, who rank fifth in passing yards allowed.

Look for a similar total against the Eagles on a short week, especially with Brady dealing with a minor thumb injury.

Pick: Under 297.5 passing yards (-114)

Over/Under 39.5 pass attempts

Brady sustained his injury in his five-touchdown outing against Miami last week, but he doesn't seem concerned about his throwing hand.

Even so, he's been limited in practice in the early part of the week, so we may see a far more conservative approach to the passing game against the Eagles.

That said, Brady attempted 41 passes in his win against the Dolphins, and he didn't even play the final seven minutes of the fourth quarter. 

Brady has recorded fewer than 40 attempts in one contest this season, when he attempted just 36 passes against Atlanta.

While Fournette may do a lot more in the ground game on Thursday, he'll also be a frequent short target for Brady.

While his passing yards total will be lower than usual, look for Brady to dump off a number of short- to mid-range passes and hit the Over on 39.5 pass attempts.

Pick: Over 39.5 pass attempts (-106)

Over/Under 2.5 touchdown passes

As for his scoring abilities, Brady has celebrated two five-touchdown performances this season and put up four passing touchdowns in Week 1's Thursday Night Football matchup against the Dallas Cowboys.

In Weeks 3 and 4, Brady had a more difficult time reaching the end zone.

He threw for one touchdown against the Los Angeles Rams in a 34-24 loss, while he failed to score against the Patriots on Sunday Night Football the following week.

The Eagles surrender an average of two passing touchdowns per outing and gave up three passing TDs to Dak Prescott and five to Patrick Mahomes earlier this season.

In five career regular-season games against the Eagles, Brady has averaged two passing scores per contest.

He'll find the end zone twice on Thursday, but the rest of the team's points will come from Tampa Bay's rushing attack.

Pick: Under 2.5 touchdown passes (-124)