Buccaneers vs. Patriots: The best player prop bets for SNF

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October 2nd, 2021

Emotions will be running high as Tom Brady returns to Gillette Stadium with his Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers against former head coach Bill Belichick and his New England Patriots.

This is a must-watch for even the most casual NFL fan, but we can make things even more interesting by wagering on some player props for this matchup! Here are our top three.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1) at New England Patriots (1-2), 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC

Mon, October 4 2021, 12:20 AM

NE Patriots






O 49.5

TB Buccaneers






U 49.5

Touchdown scorer: Leonard Fournette

When Brady has more rushing touchdowns than any Buccaneers running back through three weeks, you know Tampa has not placed a very high emphasis on establishing the ground game. In fact, no quarterback has dropped back to pass more than Brady has in 2021 (141).

That is bound to change – not only to give his 44-year-old arm a rest, but to keep opponents honest. Expect Bucs tailbacks Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones to be much more involved in Week 4, as the Patriots own the league’s ninth-worst rush defense through three weeks (122.7 yards allowed per game) and the second-best pass defense (159.7 yards allowed per game).

We like Fournette – who’s outnumbered Jones in carries 24-15 through three games – to set the tone on Sunday night and score the first touchdown.

NFL pick: Fournette first TD (+800)

Damien Harris Over/Under 45.5 rushing yards

Harris has seen his numbers regress from week-to-week this year. After hitting the century mark against the Miami Dolphins in Week 1, he ran for only 62 yards against the New York Jets, then a mere 14 yards on just six carries against the New Orleans Saints.

New England was playing from behind for most of the day against the Saints, and a similar scenario could unfold against Tampa. Prop bettors should be bearish about Harris on Sunday night.

NFL pick: Under (-114)

Mike Evans Over/Under 64.5 receiving yards

Mike Evans has seen his number called more and more as the season has progressed, but as we mentioned above, the Bucs should be much less reliant on their passing game on Sunday night than they have through the first three weeks of 2021.

Tampa is unlikely to be with Rob Gronkowski (doubtful, ribs) in this one, but they’ll welcome back wide-out Antonio Brown after a one-week absence (COVID protocols). Don’t expect Evans to be targeted 10 times like he was against the Los Angeles Rams in Week 3, and don’t count on him to eclipse 64.5 receiving yards.

NFL pick: Under (-114)