Buccaneers vs. Patriots: The best player props bets for Brady, Gronkowski, and more

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October 1st, 2021

Are family reunions ever straightforward? Whether it’s over Thanksgiving dinner or at a cousin’s wedding, they tend to be full of tears, tantrums, and turmoil.

There will be no bigger family reunion in the country this weekend than the one in New England, as Tom Brady returns to the city where he spear-headed one of the NFL’s greatest dynasties. Now part of the current Super Bowl champs in Tampa Bay, Brady goes up against Bill Belichick, which is essentially like watching the uncle and aunt who are now divorced having to sit at the same table again. Absolutely mouthwatering.

Mon, October 4 2021, 12:20 AM

NE Patriots






O 49

TB Buccaneers






U 49

Here are the best player prop bets as we get set for fireworks when the Bucs face the Patriots.  

Tom Brady Over/Under 304.5 Passing Yards

Oh man. Brady is back in New England, coming off the back of an embarrassing loss to the Rams, and he’s only 68 yards off the all-time NFL passing record. And you think he’s not going to go off?

He’s 44 years old and playing like he’s in his mid-20s. It’s incredible. Brady has thrown for more than 300 yards in six of his last eight regular season games and last week chucked the ball 55 times, completing 41 passes for 432 yards.

TB12 is averaging 7.7 yards per attempt this season, and has thrown the ball 141 times – no QB chucked the ball more through the first three weeks. And why wouldn’t you when you can aim at Antonio Brown, Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, and Gronk?

The Patriots’ pass defense is ranked second in the league, giving up just 479 yards through three games and keeping rival QBs under 185 yards – but so far, they’ve only faced Tua Tagovailoa, rookie Zach Wilson, and Jameis Winston.

New England and Belichick know Brady better than most, but they won’t be able to stop him.

Pick: Over 304.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Damien Harris Over/Under 45.5 Rushing Yards

The Patriots' rush offense hasn’t got going at all this season, ranking 24th in the NFL, and it’s only getting worse for Damien Harris. He got just six carries for 14 yards rushing last week as the Patriots got steamrolled by the Saints. What’s worse is that the Pats don’t seem to trust Harris in pass protection, which could mean more James White and Brandon Bolden.

Now a struggling Harris has to face the Bucs, who have the best rushing defense in the league. Tampa Bay has yet to let any team rush for more than 76 yards this season, and Sony Michel is the only running back to go for more than 38 yards through three games.

The Patriots would love to lean on the run game to keep TB12 off the field, but it hasn’t been working for them so far, and it’s hard to see Harris getting the 15 touches he needs to get over this line.

Pick: Under 45.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

Rob Gronkowski Anytime Touchdown Scorer

Brady isn’t the only man with a chip on his shoulder returning to his old stomping ground. Gronk is back and will want to prove a point as well.

He took a monster hit last week against the Rams and had to sit out for a period of the game, and that’s hampered his preparation this week. The rib x-rays came back negative, which is good, but no doubt Gronk has been sore all week. That isn’t going to stop him suiting up on Sunday, though.

Gronk has seven TDs in his last seven regular season games, and there is no doubt Tom Brady will be looking for him in the red zone against his former boss.

Expect Gronkowski to spike the ball out of the stadium if he does.

Pick: Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+117)