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Chargers vs. Broncos: NFL Week 12 betting odds, preview, and pick

Profile Picture: Dan Halverson

November 25th, 2021

The Los Angeles Chargers head to Denver in Week 12 following a thrilling Sunday Night contest with the Pittsburgh Steelers.

The Broncos are 5-5 straight-up on the year and 5-5 against the spread. The Chargers, meanwhile, are 6-4 straight-up and also 5-5 against the spread. 

Let’s break down this key AFC West divisional matchup, beginning with the latest betting odds.

Sun, November 28 2021, 9:05 PM

DEN Broncos

Moneyline

+120

Spread

+3

Total

O 48

LA Chargers

Moneyline

-148

Spread

-3

Total

U 48

Broncos' rushing attack should flourish

The Chargers give up the most yards per game on the ground in the entire league. They are 29th in yards allowed per rush at 4.7, and while defensive Joey Bosa headlines a dangerous passing attack, the interior of the line has inadequate depth in the face of injuries and COVID-19 absences.

Bosa, Christian Covington, and Jerry Tillery have all been in and out of the lineup, and now fellow lineman Linval Joseph has tested positive for COVID-19, and will miss Sunday's game.

The Broncos’ rushing attack isn’t potent, coming in 19th in yards per game, but backup running back Javonte Williams is a big-play explosive threat, and with all of the receiving corps finally rounding into good health, the threat of the passing attack should open the ground game up a bit more. The Broncos average 4.5 yards per rush attempt, good for 12th-best in the league, and should find their least resistance yet in this matchup.

If the Broncos can control the ball and produce points-scoring drives, they can effectively neutralize Justin Herbert and LA's high-octane passing attack.

Chargers vs. Broncos Key Injuries

LA ChargersDenver Broncos
DT Linval Joseph: Out (COVID-19)
S Kareem Jackson: Questionable (shoulder)
DT Jerry Tillery: Questionable (COVID-19)
OT Garett Bolles: Out (COVID-19)
CB Asante Samuel Jr.: Questionable (concussion)
OG Graham Glasgow: Out (ankle)
DT Christian Covington: Questionable (COVID-19)
RB Mike Boone: Questionable (hip)
OG Matt Feiler: Questionable (ankle)

Chargers and Broncos Betting Trends

  • The Chargers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 November games
  • The Chargers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games
  • The underdog is 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight meetings
  • The Under is 4-0 in the Broncos' last four games
  • The Broncos are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games following an ATS loss

Broncos will Win at Line of Scrimmage 

This should be a tightly contested divisional matchup that comes down to the fourth quarter, but the Broncos will benefit tremendously from the home field advantage against a Chargers team that looks outmatched in the trenches.

Even if all of the Chargers’ defensive lineman besides Joseph are able to see the field, the Broncos’ steady offense should wear them down enough to decide things late. The Broncos also get back nose tackle Mike Purcell along their defensive front.

Coming off a bye and with a healthier lineup, look for the small underdog Broncos to win outright and keep the AFC West race close.

Score prediction: Broncos 27, Chargers 24

NFL Week 12 pick: Broncos +3

Chargers and Broncos pick powered by The Quant Edge

Our predictive engine is calling for the Chargers to win outright.

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