Chiefs' Super Bowl odds spike following Mahomes injury

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October 18th, 2019

The Kansas City Chiefs snapped their two-game losing streak with a win in Denver on Thursday night but lost their biggest asset in the process.

Reigning MVP Patrick Mahomes dislocated his right knee on a quarterback sneak near the goal line in the first half of the Chiefs’ 30-6 victory over the Broncos. The third-year quarterback was already dealing with an ankle injury, which hindered him in Kansas City’s two losses to Indianapolis and Houston.

In those games Mahomes completed just 56.4% and 54.3% of his passes and threw just one touchdown against the Colts. He also threw his only interception of 2019 against the Texans.

On Friday an MRI determined no significant damage to Mahomes’ knee, but he will seek additional opinions to determine the best path to recovery. Kansas City will plan for Mahomes’ return later in the season, but it’s uncertain how soon he might be back.
In light of Mahomes’ questionable status, the Chiefs’ Super Bowl odds dropped from +520 to +1050 overnight.

Odds to win the Super Bowl

TeamSuper Bowl Odds
New England Patriots
New Orleans Saints
Kansas City Chiefs
San Francisco 49ers
Green Bay Packers
In Mahomes’ absence on Thursday, backup Matt Moore stepped in and completed 10 of his 19 passes for 117 yards and one touchdown against the Broncos. But chances are the Chiefs won’t have much hope for a Super Bowl run unless Mahomes is under center.

The Chiefs’ longer odds could be seen as a value play at the moment, in the event Mahomes can suit up later in the season and lead Kansas City on a playoff run. However, the Chiefs have already demonstrated severe weakness on defense, particularly against the run, and the Colts and Texans provided blueprints for victory.
The Chiefs sit in first place in the AFC West with a 5-2 record. The Raiders are in second at 3-2 and are the only other team with a winning record in the division.

Unfortunately for the Chiefs, their next two games are against two solid defensesGreen Bay and Minnesota. If Mahomes returns in three weeks, likely the best-case scenario, he’ll meet with the Los Angeles Chargers’ No. 5 pass defense before Kansas City’s bye week.

From Week 13 on the Chiefs get New England and Chicago on the road, plus Oakland, Denver and the Chargers at home. Each of those teams, except the Raiders, rank inside the top 10 in total defense and pass defense.

Mahomes led Kansas City to the AFC Championship Game last season, and the Chiefs had hopes of going even further this year. But if Mahomes is still shaky once he comes back, Kansas City will have a long road to the Super Bowl in 2019.

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