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Chiefs vs. Buccaneers: Super Bowl LV odds, preview, and pick

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January 25th, 2021

A fascinating matchup awaits fans and bettors in Super Bowl LV (6:30 p.m. ET, CBS) as the Kansas City Chiefs will face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, FL. Coincidentally, this will be the first time that the Super Bowl isn’t played at a truly neutral site. The Bucs will be in their own stadium, though capacity has been limited to about 22,000.

Super Bowl LV is also unique in that the last two Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks – Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes (Super Bowl LIV) and Tampa Bay’s Tom Brady (Super Bowl LIII) – will face off in the big game.

Will it be the Chiefs who hoist the Lombardi Trophy on Feb. 7 – becoming the first back-to-back Super Bowl champs since Brady’s Patriots in 2003-2004 – or will “Tom Terrific” bring the Bucs their first crown since 2002, and earn his eye-popping seventh Super Bowl victory in his record-breaking 10th appearance? Let’s start digging into the matchup.

Sun, February 7 2021, 11:30 PM

TB Buccaneers

Moneyline

+138

Spread

+3

Total

O 56.5

KC Chiefs

Moneyline

-167

Spread

-3

Total

U 56.5

Chiefs finally win and cover against Bills

The Chiefs we came to know in 2019 and early 2020 finally reappeared, dominating Buffalo in a 38-24 triumph in the AFC Championship Game. It marked the first time that Kansas City won by double-digits since Nov. 1, a span of 10 games.

Mahomes – despite concussion worries and turf toe – was his usual brilliant self against the Bills, completing 29 of 38 passes for 325 yards and three touchdowns.

The performances of wide receiver Tyreek Hill and tight end Travis Kelce stood out. The former hauled in nine passes for 172 yards, while the latter went for 13 catches and 118 yards with two touchdowns.

Bucs beat Packers, but barely

The Bucs did not dominate the Packers like they did in Week 6 (a 38-10 result), but they came away with a 31-26 triumph in Green Bay in the NFC Championship Game.

Tampa played brilliantly in the first half, taking a 21-10 lead into the locker room. The Packers were engineering a comeback, but it ultimately fell short, thanks in no small part to head coach Matt LaFleur’s inexplicable decision to pass up a chance at tying the game in favor of a field goal.

Brady’s performance can best be described as “uneven.” He went 20-for-36 through the air for 280 yards with three touchdowns and three interceptions.

Chiefs and Buccaneers statistics and rankings

Team NamePassing YardsRushing YardsPassing Yards AllowedRushing Yards Allowed
Kansas City Chiefs
303.4, 1st
112.4, 16th
236.2, 14th
122.1, 21st
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
289.1, 2nd
94.9, 29th
246.6, 21st
80.6, 1st

Chiefs will win if history repeats itself

When the Bucs and Chiefs met in Tampa in Week 12, Andy Reid’s troops emerged with a 27-24 victory. The game did not feel that close, as Kansas City was ahead 27-10 going into the fourth quarter.

The quarterback comparison was not dissimilar from the performances in their respective championship games. Mahomes went 37-for-49 with 462 yards and three touchdowns. Hill had a monster game, accounting for 269 yards on 13 receptions.

Brady had a fine day under center – completing 27 of 41 passes for 345 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions – but ultimately couldn’t keep up with his younger adversary.

Positive trends abound for both teams, favor Over

Trends bettors will find it difficult to split the Chiefs and Bucs against the spread.

Kansas City has covered in four of its last five playoff games, cashing in as favorites in each instance. The Chiefs are also 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games against teams with winning records.

Will the Chiefs cover in Super Bowl LV?

Tampa has covered in four straight contests as underdogs, with a matching record in its last four postseason tilts when catching points.

Totals bettors should note that the Over is 4-0 in the Chiefs’ last four games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous tilt. The Chiefs have exceeded the total in four of their last five games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game, and in their last five games following a straight-up win.

The Over is 23-10 in the Bucs’ last 33 overall, with a 9-4 record in their last 13 games as underdogs.

Score prediction: Chiefs 34, Buccaneers 27

NFL picks: Chiefs -3, Over 56.5

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