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Chiefs vs. Raiders: The best player prop bets for SNF

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November 14th, 2021

It may have been ugly, but the Chiefs got it done when it mattered most last week against the Packers, and that means it’s all to play for in the AFC West. Kansas City is 5-4 along with the Broncos, while the Raiders and Chargers are 5-3. This one is going to the wire.

The Raiders had their momentum halted in a surprising defeat to the Giants last week, and off-the-field issues are threatening to undermine what had been a strong start to the year.

The Chiefs are favorites traveling to Allegiant Field in what could turn out to be a defining game in the AFC.

Mon, November 15 2021, 1:20 AM

LV Raiders

Moneyline

+120

Spread

+2.5

Total

O 52

KC Chiefs

Moneyline

-148

Spread

-2.5

Total

U 52

Darren Waller: Over/Under 67.5 Receiving Yards

Darren Waller had his best game since Week 1 seven days ago, as he caught seven of 11 targets for 92 yards. He led the Raiders with a 24% target share - up slightly on his 21% share for the season so far.

And while it hasn't always been spectacular for Waller, it has been remarkably solid. He's had at least seven targets in all but one game, at least four catches in every game, and at least 50 yards receiving in all but one game. The floor is solid for what Waller will produce in the box score.

But now against the Chiefs, this is the time to fire up more Waller.

The Chiefs are giving up 68.8 yards per game to the tight end position - with only the Ravens and the Chargers giving up more. This is the perfect match for Derek Carr and the Raiders offense to utilize the 6-foot-6 beast out of Georgia Tech.

Last week Waller got 11 targets, and ideally he will get something similar on Sunday night. In his career he has 12 games with double-digit targets and in 11 of them he's gone for 75 yards or more. In those 12 games he's averaged an incredible 110 yards per game.

Raiders, if you're reading this: FEED WALLER!

Pick: Over 67.5 Receiving Yards (-113)


Derek Carr: Over/Under 292.5 Passing Yards

A quick game of Derek Carr or Patrick Mahomes for you.

Which QB has more passing yards per game this year?
Which player has a higher QB rating this year?
Which QB has a higher completion rate this year?
Which one is averaging more yards per attempt this year?

Ding ding ding. If you answered Derek Carr to all of them, give yourself a pat on the back. For all of Mahomes’ troubles with the Chiefs, Carr has been rolling with the Raiders. He has over 296 passing yards in six of his eight games this year and is throwing, on average, 39 pass attempts per game.

Now he gets to set his sights on the Chiefs, a side that are ranked 21st against the pass, giving up 267 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks. There’s a big point total on this game of 51.5, and the Chiefs have been picked apart plenty of times already this year.

Carr threw for 275 yards and 347 yards in the two games against the Chiefs last year, and a similar effort will be enough on Sunday to get him over this line. The arrival of DeSean Jackson and the potential of a huge deep play are real.

Pick: Over 292.5 Passing Yards (-114)


Tyreek Hill: Over/Under 73.5 Receiving Yards

Tyreek Hill is a real puzzler for bettors. Let’s not beat around the bush, 'Cheetah' is one of the most explosive players in the NFL, his rapport with Patrick Mahomes is deadly, and he’s torched more defenses than I’ve had hot dinners. But this year it’s all a little different.

On the face of it, you’d expect Hill’s yardage numbers to be off the charts because he is getting more targets from Mahomes than ever before. This year he’s averaging 11.4 targets a game, compared to 9.0 last year and 7.4 the year before. That unsurprisingly is leading to more catches per game than he’s ever had – 7.56 per game – almost two grabs more per game than he had last year.

But the key here is the big downfield play has almost disappeared. His average yards per reception have dropped from 14.7 to 11.4, and his yards per target figure has fallen from 9.5 to 7.6.

Tyreek Hill 2018-2021

YearYards Per ReceptionYards Per Target
2018
17.0
10.8
2019
14.8
9.7
2020
14.7
9.5
2021
11.4
7.6

He’s been held under 65 yards in five of his nine games this year – something that only happened six times in the regular season last year. The offense is out of sync, and now face a Raiders team that gives up just 121.4 yards per game total to wide receivers. That’s the third-lowest tally in the league (only bettered by the Chargers and the Bills) so Hill’s slight dip in form could well continue on SNF.

Pick: Under 73.5 Receiving Yards (-113)

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