Colts vs Titans: The best betting props for TNF
The Indianapolis Colts and Tennessee Titans kick off Week 10 of the NFL season with an important AFC South matchup that could go a long way in determining the winner of the division.
The Colts lost by 14 to the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday, and will look to get back in the win column against a Titans team that is coming off a solid victory over Chicago and leads the AFC South by one game.
Here are the three prop bets we like for Thursday’s game.
Fri, November 13 2020, 1:20 AM
Derrick Henry rushing yards
The Titans offense still runs through Derrick Henry, but he was held in check last weekend against the Bears. He had 21 rushes for 68 yards – an average of 3.24 yards per carry - which is well below his season average.
The Colts run defense is formidable, allowing 3.3 yards per carry while giving up only six rushing touchdowns, so this will prove to be a tough test for Henry and the Titans' vaunted run game. The Colts also don’t give up much in the pass game, either. Through nine weeks, they still have more interceptions than passing touchdowns allowed.
Henry hasn’t had more than 25 rushing attempts in a single game since Week 3. After 21 attempts on Sunday, it doesn’t seem likely that they’ll go back to him for 25-plus attempts on a short week.
Henry's average for rushing attempts per game is just shy of 23. If he gets fewer than 23 attempts on Thursday, he’d have to go above the 3.3 yards per carry that Indianapolis has given up this season in order to go Over 80.5 yards.
This is likely to be a sweat either way, but I’m leaning toward the Under for Henry versus the Colts.
Anytime touchdown scorer
The Titans have a tough matchup against the Colts on Thursday. The Indianapolis defense has allowed just eight touchdowns to wide receivers this season.
But A.J. Brown continues to be dominant since re-joining Tennessee in Week 5. He’s averaging eight targets per game this season, and has the second highest share of red zone targets and targets inside the 10-yard line on the Titans.
Brown has touchdowns in five straight games. That streak will eventually come to an end, but if fully healthy he should have another opportunity to get into the end zone against the Colts. Indianapolis will likely focus their efforts in the red zone to stopping Derrick Henry.
If the Colts are successful in stopping Henry, it could open up more opportunities in the red zone for Brown, who has scored four touchdowns in seven of his red zone targets.
Ryan Tannehill passing yards
No one will argue that Ryan Tannehill is enjoying a solid second season with the Titans, but I’m not keen about the Over on total passing yards for the veteran quarterback.
We’ve been over the Colts' defense, which has given up only 206 yards passing per game through nine weeks. As good as Tannehill has been – 1,981 yards passing, 19 touchdowns and only three interceptions – he’s averaged only 247 yards passing per game.
The total for Ryan Tannehill passing yards on Thursday is 241.5. He would’ve hit the Over on this total only three times this season, and not once in the last three weeks.
He passed for only 158 yards on Sunday against Chicago.
Given the trend of fewer than 240 yards passing in each of his last three games, and the Colts' ability to limit the opposing team’s passing game, hitting the Over this week presents a significant challenge for Tannehill.