Constructing the perfect Same Game Combo for Super Bowl LVI
Super Bowl LVI is almost here, and football fans are all set for the LA Rams to take on the Cincinnati Bengals in what has the potential to be a high-scoring thriller. Both offenses have been electric during the postseason and tee us up for the perfect same-game combo as we prepare for the greatest show of them all.
This combo features five key players from both teams and a $100 bet at +3500 odds returns $3,600.
Sun, February 13 2022, 11:30 PM
Seeing a prop line in triple figures for receiving or rushing yards usually puts me off straight away, but then nobody is having a season quite like Cooper Kupp. In the NFC Championship Game against the San Francisco 49ers, Kupp hauled in 11 catches for 142 yards, giving him his 13th 100-yard game of the season, which beat a 25-year-old record held by Cowboys Hall of Famer Michael Irvin.
You might think the Bengals will have a plan for Kupp.
No, just stop right there. I’m sure the 49ers had a plan and Kupp still torched them. I’m sure the Buccaneers had a plan in the Divisional Round, when Kupp hauled in nine passes for 183 yards, as well.
Kupp has now beaten this line in seven of his last nine games. He averages 11 targets per game from Stafford and isn’t suddenly going to see his workload dry up in the Super Bowl.
Throw OBJ in on the Over as well. The Bengals had plenty of problems in the secondary this year and ranked 26th against the pass during the regular season, giving up an average of 248.4 yards per game.
Three players from the Chiefs went for over 52 yards against Cincinnati last week, and A.J. Brown and Julio Jones put up a combined 204 yards receiving against them a week earlier.
While Kupp should flourish, there’s no reason to think OBJ won’t too. He’s excelled during the playoffs, seeing 23 targets through three games, and putting up 54 yards (Cardinals), 69 yards (Buccaneers), and a season-high 113 yards (49ers). He’s a big man for the big stage.
Matthew Stafford’s telepathic connection with Kupp is mirrored on the other side of the field with Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase. The rookie has excelled at the Bengals and averaged 86.7 receiving yards per game this season. He’s smashed countless rookie and franchise records and has topped this line in four of his last six games.
The Chiefs held him to just 54 yards last week, but that’s no surprise, given he put up 266 yards on Kansas City in Week 17, so they were acutely aware of the damage he could do. The pressure doesn’t get to Chase, who put up 116 yards on the Raiders in the Wild Card Round and 109 yards on the Titans in the Divisional Round.
Despite Jimmy G completing just 16 passes last week, both Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel were able to hit 70 yards through the air. With the Rams ranked 22nd against the pass during the regular season, Burrow and Chase should have plenty of joy.
The Rams may be susceptible against the pass, but they had one of the strongest run defenses in the league during the regular season, allowing just 103 yards per game and 4.0 yards per attempt.
Joe Mixon has been seeing plenty of the ball on the ground for the Bengals but has not been running efficiently enough for me to think he can put up big numbers on this defense.
Since Week 12, Mixon has averaged 17 carries per game, yet turned that into just 58.9 yards per game — an average of 3.5 yards a carry. In those eight games, he’s passed this line of 62 just twice. Despite the heavy workload, he is not making it count on the ground.
This feels like a game that will be won through the air rather than on the ground, and even if Mixon gets 16-plus touches, he may struggle to beat this line.
Mixon should have more success through the air, though. He has exceeded 26 yards receiving in his last five games straight and saw at least four targets from Burrow in four of those five games.
Elijah Mitchell (three catches for 50 yards) and Leonard Fournette (nine catches for 56 yards) both had success catching passes out of the backfield against the Rams in the postseason, and Mixon is a reliable pass-catcher.
The Rams gave up 6.1 receiving yards per target to running backs during the regular season, and Mixon has averaged 5.8 targets per game since Week 16. While he may struggle on the ground, this receiving line looks beatable.
Lastly, I’m taking the Under on Akers, as well. Since making his season debut in Week 18, I’ve seen nothing that makes me think we’ll get a 65-yard game out of him in the Super Bowl. In the postseason he’s carried the ball 54 times (18 times per game on average) for a combined total of just 151 yards.
That’s an average of 2.8 yards per carry.
The Bengals defense ranked fifth in the league against the rush this year, allowing a total of just 102.5 yards on the ground per game to the opposition. Josh Jacobs (83 yards) is the only player to top 66 yards against the Bengals in three postseason games.
In 2019, the Bengals had the worst run defense in football, but this rebuilt unit is stronger than ever this season.