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Cowboys vs. Chiefs: NFL Week 11 betting odds, preview, and pick

Profile Picture: Dan Halverson

November 16th, 2021

Two of the NFL's most popular teams face off Sunday afternoon when the Dallas Cowboys travel north to take on the Kansas City Chiefs. While it's a longshot these teams will face each other again in the Super Bowl, it also wouldn’t be shocking.

The Cowboys are 7-2 straight-up and 8-1 against the spread, while the Chiefs are 6-4 straight-up and just 3-7 against the spread. The Cowboys are coming off a nice bounce back win against the Falcons after a puzzling home loss to the Broncos, while the Chiefs had an impressive win on the road in Las Vegas on Sunday Night Football.

Let’s take a closer look at this fantastic primetime matchup, beginning with the latest betting odds.

Sun, November 21 2021, 9:25 PM

KC Chiefs

Moneyline

-132

Spread

-2

Total

O 56

DAL Cowboys

Moneyline

+108

Spread

+2

Total

U 56

Is Kansas City's Defense Fixed?

The biggest contributor to the Chiefs’ early-season losses was an abysmal defense, which was one of the very worst in the league and certainly the worst against the run.

Turnovers on offense didn’t help either, but the defense offered no resistance when the offense put them in tough positions. Over the last couple of weeks the Chiefs appear to be trending upward on that side of the ball. They gave up just 17 points to the Giants, then seven to the Packers, and most recently 14 against the Raiders.

After giving up 6.6 yards per play defensively through their first seven games, the Chiefs have given up just 5.4 yards per play in their last three. While that is a clear improvement and puts them in the middle of the pack across the league, it is fair to question if the opponents’ have played a role in that success, and if the defense's recent run is just fool's gold.

Against a potent Cowboys offense that offers a step-up in class, this Chiefs defense will get a real test to see if things are in fact improving.

Cowboys vs. Chiefs Injury Report

Dallas CowboysKansas City Chiefs
WR CeeDee Lamb: Probable (arm)
OT Lucas Niang: Out (rib)
LT Tyron Smith: Questionable (ankle)
LB Willie Gay: Questionable (illness)
DE DeMarcus Lawrence: Out (foot)
DB Charvarius Ward: Questionable (illness)
DE Randy Gregory: Out (calf)
OT Mike Remmers: Out (knee)

Cowboys and Chiefs Betting Trends

  • The Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as an underdog
  • The Cowboys are 8-1 ATS on the season
  • The Over is 5-2 in the Cowboys’ last seven games as an underdog
  • The Chiefs are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 home games
  • The Chiefs are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win against the spread

The Cowboys will shine on Sunday

The Cowboys have been outperforming expectations all season, and have raced out to an impressive 8-1 record against the spread. It is an unusual turn of events for a franchise that has always been a fan favorite, but hasn’t appeared in a Super Bowl since 1996.

In this matchup, the Chiefs will undoubtedly enjoy home field advantage and positive momentum off three straight wins, but nearly all of the advanced metrics indicate the Cowboys are the better team, and the spread favors Kansas City as a slight favorite only because of home field advantage and reputation.

The Chiefs’ recent run of defensive success doesn’t impress me as their opponents repeatedly made mistakes that jeopardized point-scoring opportunities. This will be a much tougher task for a Chiefs team that still hasn’t proven they can reliably stop the run, and I expect the Cowboys to continue their recent run against the spread and win outright in what should make for an excellent and exciting affair.

Score prediction: Cowboys 31, Chiefs 30

NFL Week 11 pick: Cowboys +2

Cowboys vs. Chiefs Pick powered by The Quant Edge

Our predictive engine is calling for the Chiefs to win outright and for the score to go Over the projected total.

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