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Cowboys vs. Chiefs: The best player prop bets for Week 11

Profile Picture: Robert Criscola

November 20th, 2021

A fascinating interconference matchup anchors the late-afternoon NFL action this Sunday as the Dallas Cowboys visit the Kansas City Chiefs.

The Cowboys rebounded from a stunning loss to the Denver Broncos in Week 9 by demolishing the Atlanta Falcons in Week 10, 43-3. Dallas’ only other loss this year was to the defending Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers on opening night.

Meanwhile, the reigning AFC champion Chiefs are still involved in a dogfight for their divisional crown, and can’t afford too many more slip-ups.

Let’s dive into the player prop market and highlight our three favorite wagers for this tilt.

Dallas Cowboys (7-2) at Kansas City Chiefs (6-4), 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX

Sun, November 21 2021, 9:25 PM

KC Chiefs

Moneyline

-139

Spread

-2.5

Total

O 56.5

DAL Cowboys

Moneyline

+115

Spread

+2.5

Total

U 56.5

Patrick Mahomes Over/Under 40.5 pass attempts

Sunday’s Cowboys/Chiefs clash promises to be a shootout, which means Patrick Mahomes will be dropping back to pass early and often.

Mahomes – averaging 41.2 pass attempts per game this season – has thrown at least 44 passes in five of his last eight games, including a 50-pass performance in a 41-14 blowout of the Las Vegas Raiders last Sunday night.

Dallas’ defense is ninth in stopping the run (101.2 yards allowed per game), which suggests that Clyde Edwards-Helaire and/or Darrel Williams won’t be able to help Mahomes out that much on the ground.

NFL pick: Over (-120)


Ezekiel Elliott Over/Under 93.5 rushing and receiving yards

Ezekiel Elliott was limited to just 92 total rushing yards in his last two contests, but he had legitimate excuses in each one.

The Broncos had the Cowboys on the ropes early on in Week 9, so Dallas abandoned the run. In last week’s game with Atlanta, Elliott and company were able to take their foot off the gas pedal late.

Elliott should have a solid outing against Kansas City’s lackluster run stoppers, which have allowed 114.6 yards per game through 10 weeks, 18th in the NFL. That number spikes to 124.0 if you exclude Week 10, in which the Raiders had to give up on the run.

The Chiefs also allow the fifth-most receiving yards per game to running backs (53.8), so Elliott should enjoy some success in that department too.

NFL pick: Over (-114)


CeeDee Lamb touchdown scorer

With Amari Cooper out due to COVID protocols, CeeDee Lamb becomes an even more important target for Dak Prescott.

Lamb is the team leader in receptions (47), targets (73), receiving yards (726), and touchdowns (six). He’ll take on a K.C. defense that’s allowed the fifth-most passing touchdowns in the NFL this year (18).

Considering the high total assigned for this game – and the fact that Michael Gallup is also back catching passes for the Cowboys – Lamb’s anytime touchdown line is very generous.

NFL pick: Lamb anytime TD (-112)

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