Cowboys vs. Saints: The best Ezekiel Elliott player prop bets for TNF

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December 2nd, 2021

There were murmurs leading up to this week that Ezekiel Elliot would be shut down for rest. The Cowboys RB is dealing with a knee injury, but the latest reports suggest he is fully expected to play Thursday night in New Orleans.

Will Zeke be effective against the Saints on Thursday Night Football?

Fri, December 3 2021, 1:20 AM

NO Saints






O 47.5

DAL Cowboys






U 47.5

We've examined the matchup closely and have the three best player prop bets for Elliott below.

Over/Under 46.5 Rushing Yards

This number is clearly reflecting both the injury concerns and the snap count concerns around Zeke going into this game. Elliott is averaging 65.5 rushing yards per game and 4.5 yards per attempt this season. In his career, he has averaged 86.6 rushing yards per game and 4.5 yards per attempt.

Based on those averages, he would only need 11 carries to hit this number. That may seem very low, but he has gone back-to-back games with fewer than 10 carries. Elliott played 64% of the offensive snaps last week and I would not expect that number to go up on Thursday night. It is even likely to go down a little.

The Saints have the third best rushing defense in the league, allowing 91.9 rushing yards per game. In his career, Elliot has only averaged 55.0 rushing yards per game in his two matchups with the Saints. I love the Under here with his limited workload against a tough rushing defense.

Pick: Under 46.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

Over/Under 18.5 Receiving Yards

Despite the limited rushing attempts and snap counts the past two weeks, Elliot has been a prominent target out of the backfield in the passing game. Zeke has 14 combined targets over the past two games, and that ranks fourth on the team in that timespan.

Elliott has 12 catches for 90 yards in his previous two matchups with the Saints. The New Orleans defense ranks 23rd in passing, and has allowed a running back to go Over this number in seven of their 11 games.

The Cowboys will want to limit Elliott’s carries, but they will still keep him involved in the offense. I like Elliott to find one or two big gains on catches out of the backfield to easily hit this Over.

Pick: Over 18.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

Ezekiel Elliott: anytime touchdown scorer

Zeke has scored at least one touchdown in six of his 11 games this season. He also scored a touchdown in each of his two previous matchups with the Saints. The Saints have allowed seven touchdowns to running backs this season in five of the eleven games they've played.

Even with the limited workload, I like the odds of Elliott finding the end zone here, whether it is from a goal line carry or maybe even a catch and run out of the backfield in the red zone. At almost even money, this is worth taking and adding to your Same Game Combos.

Pick: Elliott to score a touchdown (-107)