Cowboys vs. Saints: TNF betting odds, preview, and pick

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November 29th, 2021

Both looking to bounce back from crushing Thanksgiving Day losses, the Dallas Cowboys and New Orleans Saints will square off inside the Superdome for a Thursday Night Football showdown in Week 13.

Fri, December 3 2021, 1:20 AM

NO Saints






O 47.5

DAL Cowboys






U 47.5

Penalties punish Dallas in overtime defeat

Dallas endured a heartbreaking overtime loss to the Las Vegas Raiders on Turkey Day, as both teams were called for a whopping 14 penalties, including a game-altering pass interference flag against Cowboys cornerback Anthony Brown in extra minutes. 

On 3rd-and-18, with six minutes remaining in overtime, the Raiders were gifted a first down on Brown's fourth pass interference penalty of the day, which set up a 29-yard game-winning field goal to hand Vegas a 36-33 victory and its first win since Week 7.

The Cowboys, who rank first in penalties (8.3) and penalty yards per game (74.2), were called for a franchise record 166 yards in their Week 12 matchup.  

The offense accounted for just three of the team's 14 penalties but were largely ineffective with the absences of receivers Amari Cooper (reserve/COVID-19 list) and CeeDee Lamb (concussion).

Ezekiel Elliott also played on an injured knee and was limited to 25 yards and a touchdown on nine carries, while backup Tony Pollard added 36 rushing yards on 10 attempts. 

Quarterback Dak Prescott passed for 209 of his 375 yards in the fourth quarter, as the Cowboys dropped their second straight game to an AFC West opponent and third overall to a member of that division.

Saints lose fourth straight in inter-conference battle

Another team reeling from the injury bug, the Saints stumbled in their fourth straight contest, behind backup quarterback Trevor Siemian. The third-string signal caller has started the past four games, with Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill both sidelined with injury.

In last Thursday's matchup, Siemian threw for just 163 yards, one touchdown, and one interception in a 31-6 beatdown by the Buffalo Bills.  

The Saints' run game was just as abysmal as the passing attack, and finished with 44 yards on 25 carries.

Running back Alvin Kamara missed his third consecutive game because of a knee issue, while midseason acquisition Mark Ingram II also sat with a similar ailment.

Buffalo outgained New Orleans by 171 yards and went 8-of-13 on third down. Bills quarterback Josh Allen passed for 260 yards and four touchdowns, but was intercepted twice by linebacker Kwon Alexander and cornerback Bradley Roby.

Now 5-6 on the season, the Saints rank third in the NFC South standings behind Tampa Bay and Atlanta, and sit on the cusp of a playoff spot.

Cowboys and Saints betting trends

  • Dallas is 4-1 ATS in its last five road games
  • New Orleans is 3-8 ATS versus teams with a winning record
  • The Over is 5-2 in Dallas' last seven games as a favorite
  • The Over is 4-1 in New Orleans' last five games overall
  • The Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings in New Orleans
  • The underdog is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings between these teams

Cowboys will bounce back on the road

While Dallas is in the midst of a slump, the offense should get a jolt of energy from Cooper and Lamb, who are on pace to return for Thursday's battle.

We just witnessed how New Orleans matches up against the Bills' top-five offense, so we can expect similar struggles against Dallas' top-ranked unit (419.8 yards per game) in Week 13.

The Cowboys rank third in passing yards per game (292.4) and will go up against a bottom 10 pass defense.

Dallas is actually worse than New Orleans at defending the pass, but if Siemian is back in the starting lineup, the defense should be able to frustrate the quarterback and keep him from reaching the end zone often.

It's possible utility player Hill could be a last-second addition to the lineup, which would boost New Orleans' chances of halting its four-game skid. Otherwise, this game will go the way of the Cowboys in a close fight to the finish on the road.

Score prediction: Cowboys 27, Saints 21

NFL Week 13 pick: Over 47.5

Cowboys vs. Saints Pick powered by The Quant Edge

Our predictive engine is calling for the Saints to cover the spread and the score to go Over the projected total.