Dirk Koetter Now Favored To Be First NFL Coach Fired

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TwinSpires Staff

August 21st, 2018

by BetAmerica Staff
Move over Hue Jackson, there's a new signal caller leading the odds for the first NFL coach fired in 2018! This market tends to be one of the more popular options in NFL futures but this season feels different. There just aren't a lot of coaches burning up in a preseason spotlight. That doesn't mean that there isn't one coach in particular who has to get it right. Welcome to the top of the charts, Dirk Koetter.

Dirk Koetter - Tampa Bay (+350 First NFL Coach Fired Odds) The hand picked successor to the much maligned Lovie Smith has not improved results at all, and he seemingly lacks control over the locker room as well. Overall, the Bucs have painted themselves in to a horrifying corner with the Jameis Winston situation. It's a public relations nightmare that's compounded by the fact that Tampa is rated as the worst team in an ultra competitive division.

In Koetter's first run as the head honcho, the Bucs went a promising 9-7 SU and ATS but holes emerged in the hull as the team bumbled their way through an absolutely embarrassing 5-11 SU and 6-9-1 ATS run through the 2017 campaign. It was shameful effort that was stained by a weird game against New Orleans, where Jameis instigated a fight for no reason shortly after licking his own fingers in an attempt to inspire his team to victory.

To be fair, the team was 9th in yards gained but there's a disparity in those numbers. Tampa only scored 20.9 points per game, ranking them 18th in this regard. There were injuries and absences to notable players, but a lot of this has to fall on Koetter's head. Tampa is unimaginative, uninspired and virtually unwatchable. It's like the Buccaneers don't have an actual, offensive identity which is bizarre given how outfitted they are with talent at several key positions.

Forget their whacky spending habits (read: Cameron Brate). Try to put your personal feelings for Jameis Winston aside for a second. This comes down to how the coaches implement a plan of attack. The old "x's and o's" chatter. There just doesn't seem to be anything intrinsically different about what the Bucs try to do on offense. It's like it's predicated on random plays, the same way a 10-year old plays Madden.

The entire fate of the franchise is tied to Winston, who will open the year by serving a three-game suspension to kick off the season. Nobody doubts his talent, but the space between his ears needs a lot of work. When he's not throwing footballs, he always seems to be doing dumb things with his hands. Koetter hasn't done much to make Winston a much more intelligent football player either. In 2017, Winston threw a career-low 11 interceptions, but also coughed up 10 fumbles. The former first overall pick improved in terms of overall efficiency, but his numbers don't blow anyone away. The way he's handled off-field issues recently also seems to have curdled the milk in his coffee irrevocably.

To put it more simply, the Bucs need a miracle. It's obvious that the franchise sees something in Winston worth hitching their wagon to, but heads have to roll if another disappointing season gets logged in the ledger. The axe will fall on Koetter. Tampa's hill is to great to climb, especially with a three-game suspension looming over their best player.

Hue Jackson - Cleveland (+450 First NFL Coach Fired Odds) Jackson has long been the favorite in this corner of the NFL futures market because the Cleveland Browns are a joke. But everything changed over a busy off-season that saw the franchise overhaul its entire roster. Cleveland doesn't have to win the division in order to save Jackson's job. They just have to win a handful of games and remain competitive. The Browns are only projected for a season win total of 5.5 games. That's not a difficult mark for them to reach given that Cincinnati and Baltimore are both being held together by second-hand duct tape. It's clear that Cleveland treasures Jackson, making him a bet-off commodity in this market despite the odds.

Adam Gase - Miami (+900 First NFL Coach Fired Odds) Probably not going to happen. Gase is still revered as a bit of a guru, and most people are willing to think that Ryan Tannehill is the issue. Even when he had to pull Jay Cutler off the scrap heap, Gase managed to engineer a 6-10 SU record that should rightfully be applauded given the circumstances. His job is safer than most would have you believe.

No Coach Fired Before Week 17 (+450 First NFL Coach Fired Odds) Outside of Koetter, no other coach really enters the season on the hot seat. That's why the odds jump so dramatically after the first three or four candidates. So this particular bet, where no coach is fired prior to Week 17, is probably the smartest play overall. A lot can happen between now and December, and we all know that, but we're in a season where tenured coaches have established themselves firmly and other coaches have legitimate outs. Franchises seem to be exercising more patience, prizing consistency in leadership instead of expecting a coach to drop out of the sky and save them.

Koetter is the most obvious selection on this board, but we may go an entire year without anyone losing their job. Luckily, you can bet on either option.

First NFL Coach Fired Odds at BetAmerica Dirk Koetter +350 Hue Jackson +450 No Coach Fired +450 Adam Gase +900 Vance Joseph +900 Jay Gruden +900 Marvin Lewis +1400 Todd Bowles +1400 Bill O'Brien +2000 Jason Garrett +2000 Ron Rivera +2800 Anthony Lynn +3300 John Harbaugh +4000 Matt Nagy +4000 Matt Patricia +5000 Mike McCarthy +5000 Dan Quinn +5000 Doug Marrone +5000 Frank Reich +5000 Mike Vrabel +5000 Pete Carroll +5000 Mike Tomlin +6600 Andy Reid +6600 Mike Zimmer +6600 Bill Belichik +8000 Sean McDermott +8000 Sean Payton +8000 Pat Shurmur +10000 Steve Wilks +10000 Jon Gruden +15000 Kyle Shanahan +20000 Sean McVay +20000 Doug Pederson +25000