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Dolphins vs. Saints: The best player prop bets for MNF

Profile Picture: Josh Powell

December 27th, 2021

Anybody remember when the Dolphins were 1-7? That seems like a distant memory now as Miami has the longest active winning streak in the NFL after winning six straight games.

The Saints are also 7-7 and see Monday night's matchup as a must-win game too, but they have big problems to overcome. Quarterbacks Taysom Hill and Trevor Siemian are both on the COVID-19 list, so New Orleans will be rolling out their fourth-string QB in rookie Ian Book. The Saints stunned the Bucs last week and shut Tom Brady out, but can they catch lightning in a bottle again?

We've examined the game closely and have the three best player prop bets below.

Tue, December 28 2021, 1:15 AM

NO Saints

Moneyline

+120

Spread

+3

Total

O 36.5

MIA Dolphins

Moneyline

-148

Spread

-3

Total

U 36.5

Jaylen Waddle Over/Under 64.5 Receiving Yards

We haven’t seen Jaylen Waddle since Week 13 since he missed Miami's game against the New York Jets and the Dolphins had a bye, but when he did, he was lighting up box scores.

In seven of his last eight matches, Waddle has had over 60 receiving yards and he paces Miami in targets, receptions, and receiving yards. In the eight-game stretch from Week 6 to Week 13, Waddle had 79 targets, 59 catches, and 618 receiving yards. The only player in the NFL with a more impressive stat line in that time was Cooper Kupp (80-63-843).

During that spell Waddle had a 26% target share and took up 34.5% of the Dolphins’ air yards. He's a great bet on MNF because the Saints give up 175.1 yards per game to wide receivers – the fourth highest total in the NFL this season. NOLA has also had plenty of trouble in the slot, and with Waddle firing on all cylinders he’s poised for another big night in New Orleans.

Pick: Over 64.5 Receiving Yards (-113)


Ian Book Over/Under 20.5 Rushing Yards

Chances are Ian Book’s performance through the air isn’t going to be pretty. The 133rd draft pick in 2020 out of Notre Dame is being thrown into the deep end in a must-win game against a team on a six-game hot streak. But there may be value in his rushing line.

The Saints are used to setting up an offense with a QB who can use his legs. In the last three games, Taysom Hill ran 33 times for 207 yards (6.3 yards per attempt), and while Book may not be at Hill’s level in terms of making plays with his legs, he certainly knows how to run with the football.

In his last year with Notre Dame, Book ran 116 times for 485 yards, averaging 9.7 rushes and 40.4 yards per game. Incredibly that includes a game against Clemson, in which Book lost 35 yards – a complete anomaly and the worst rushing performance of his college career. Take that game out and in 2020 he rushed for 47 yards a game – more than double his line here.

Book played 45 games in college and cleared 20 rushing yards in 62% of them. He may not have been part of this offense long enough for the Saints to have too many designed plays around him, but the Dolphins let Josh Allen go for 90 yards against them in two games this season (6.9 yards per attempt), and if Book sees a gap, he’s going for it.

Pick: Over 20.5 Rushing Yards (-110)


DeVante Parker Over/Under 46.5 Receiving Yards

We’ve already mentioned New Orleans’ issues against wide receivers in this column, so it’s no surprise to see DeVante Parker’s name pop up. He’s had a disjointed season with injury, managing just seven games, but he’s shown enough in those games to know a line of 46.5 receiving yards is beatable.

In the six games were both Parker and Waddle have lined up, Waddle may have won the target count 54-48, and the reception count 38-30, but Parker has out-paced Waddle in terms of yards 389-319. His average depth of target has been almost double Waddle’s in those matches, and he continues to be a big-play threat for Tua Tagovailoa.

On MNF he will have to face the Saints’ best cornerback in Marshon Lattimore. Lattimore is allowing just a 54.8% pass completion rate for balls thrown into his coverage, but is giving up 8.2 yards per target and 15 yards per completion. That's a significant increase on the last two years.

Parker can expect another six or seven targets in this game, and at his present averages he may only need to haul in three or four of them to beat this line.

Pick: Over 46.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

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