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Don't sleep on the Bills despite MNF debacle

Profile Picture: Andrew Champagne

December 8th, 2021

A chaotic weekend in the National Football League came to a close with one of the most bizarre games we’ll witness all season long. Despite throwing just three passes, the New England Patriots edged the Buffalo Bills, 14-10.

Patriots are co-favored to win AFC

In large part due to the result of that game, the Patriots are now seen as the co-betting favorite to win the American Football Conference title at +300 along with the Kansas City Chiefs.

AFC Championship 2021/2022

Sun, January 30 2022, 5:00 PM

Kansas City Chiefs

+300

New England Patriots

+300

Buffalo Bills

+500

Baltimore Ravens

+750

Tennessee Titans

+1200

Los Angeles Chargers

+1300

Indianapolis Colts

+1800

Cincinnati Bengals

+2000

Cleveland Browns

+2500

Denver Broncos

+6600

The Patriots are being overvalued

Meanwhile, the Bills have now dropped four of their last seven games to fall to 7-5. They’re now +500, good for the third choice in the entire conference. I understand the Patriots are now in control of the AFC East, but that number seems far, FAR too high.

For one thing, why are we putting stock in a game that’s clearly an outlier? Winds gusted well north of 50 miles per hour Monday night and wreaked havoc on the quality of play. The way I see it, New England didn’t win in Buffalo. It survived, and I’m drawing a line through that effort from Buffalo’s perspective.

Don't sleep on the Bills

Even after the defeat, Buffalo is just one game behind New England in the loss column, and they’ll get another crack at the Patriots in a few weeks. This week’s game at Tampa Bay is no picnic, but they end the season with four very winnable games. They host Carolina, go to New England, and then welcome Atlanta and the New York Jets in January.

A 4-1 stretch would give the Bills an 11-6 record and a certain playoff spot in a wide-open AFC. Meanwhile, the Patriots are on a bye this week, but are no cinch on the road on Dec. 18 against a Colts team that’s gone 6-2 since a 1-4 start. If they lose that game and their Dec. 26 tilt with Buffalo, the AFC East is suddenly wide-open again.

It’s entirely possible Bill Belichick turns this season into his finest coaching job ever. With that in mind, though, New England hits me as a gigantic underlay at the current +300 price. The Bills are +500 and have every chance to mount a strong run going into the playoffs. At those odds, that’s the flyer I’d recommend.

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