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Fade the Buccaneers in NFC Championship futures

Profile Picture: Andrew Champagne

October 5th, 2021

Far be it for me to tell you that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are a sucker bet to get back to the Super Bowl. Much has been made of the fact that the Bucs returned all 22 starters from last year’s title-winning team, and they’ve gotten off to a 3-1 start.

Most recently, Tom Brady and company won a highly-publicized contest against the quarterback’s former team, the New England Patriots. After that game, Tampa Bay’s odds to emerge from the NFC sit at +300.

NFC Championship 2021/2022

Sun, January 30 2022, 5:00 PM

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

+300

Green Bay Packers

+500

Los Angeles Rams

+500

Arizona Cardinals

+700

Dallas Cowboys

+800

Seattle Seahawks

+1100

San Francisco 49ers

+1100

New Orleans Saints

+2000

Carolina Panthers

+2800

Minnesota Vikings

+2800

Tampa Bay sputtered against the Patriots

That sort of price hits me as far, far, far too low. For one thing, are we sure the Patriots are any good? New England is 1-3 this season, and that one win came over the woeful New York Jets. Mac Jones may be a solid prospect, but if we’re evaluating the offense right now, as the unit currently stands, it’s simply not an imposing unit. With that in mind, I’m simply not impressed by Tampa Bay’s 19-17 victory on Sunday night.

Rams and Cardinals are available at far more attractive prices

For another, there are simply far better value bets on the slate. The Los Angeles Rams thumped the Bucs two weeks ago, yet are nearly double the price in this bet. If you like the Rams to get to the big game, you’re currently getting +500. If you fancy the Arizona Cardinals, who topped the Rams this past weekend, you’re getting +700. Think the Cowboys will ride the wave of a very weak divisional schedule and get lucky with home games throughout the playoffs? You can have them at +800.

Keep an eye on the odds

Betting against Tom Brady is risky, and that’s not something any serious bettor needs to be reminded of. The Bucs have all of the firepower necessary to make another deep postseason run, and they’re a legitimate favorite. However, +300 is just way, way, WAY too short of a price to take. There are other talented teams in the NFC, ones that can capitalize if Brady and his mates stumble between now and the end of the year.

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