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Giants vs. Buccaneers: MNF Week 11 betting odds, preview, and pick

Profile Picture: Dan Halverson

November 19th, 2021

The New York Giants hit the road to play the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a Monday Night Football matchup that should give the defending Super Bowl champions an opportunity to distance themselves in the NFC South race.

Tue, November 23 2021, 1:15 AM

TB Buccaneers

Moneyline

-560

Spread

-11

Total

O 49.5

NY Giants

Moneyline

+400

Spread

+11

Total

U 49.5

The Bucs are 6-3 straight up on the season but just 3-6 against the spread. They are 11-point favorites against the Giants, who are 3-6 straight up but 5-4 against the spread.

The Bucs have been unprofitable to bettors this year, but that is due to their poor road record.

They are 3-1 ATS at home.

The total for the game is set at 49.5.

Breaking down the Bucs’ schedule

At home, the Bucs have been a different team, and a large part of that could be the scheduling they’ve faced on the road.

In their road games, Tampa Bay traveled cross country against a very talented Rams team early in the season for a matchup the Rams had circled from the moment the Bucs won the Super Bowl.

Against New England, bad weather and emotions gave the Patriots all they needed to keep it close.

New Orleans has always been a tough matchup for the Bucs as a division rival, and Washington benefited tremendously from two starting offensive linemen back in the lineup, while the Bucs dealt with injuries in Week 10.

The inability to cover on the road is notable, but it can be forgiven.

At home, the Bucs have looked like the team that won last year’s Super Bowl and could easily get there again in 2021.

Quarterback Tom Brady has an 11% passing touchdown percentage at home, and just a 1.2% interception percentage. On the road, his touchdown percentage is all the way down to 4.2%, while his interception ratio is up to 2.3%

The Bucs’ only game in which they didn’t cover at home this year was Week 1 against a Dallas Cowboys team that we now realize is a contender.

Giants and Bucs injury report

New York GiantsTampa Bay Buccaneers
RB Devontae Booker: Questionable (hip)
WR Antonio Brown: Questionable (ankle)
RB Saquon Barkley: Questionable (ankle)
WR Chris Godwin: Questionable (foot)
TE Kaden Smith: Questionable (knee)
CB Richard Sherman: Out (calf)
WR Sterling Shepard: Questionable (quadriceps)
DT Vita Vea: Questionable (knee)

Giants and Bucs betting trends 

  • The Bucs have won seven straight home games
  • The Bucs are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games
  • The Giants are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following a win against the spread
  • The Over is 4-1 ATS in the last five games in which the Bucs are a home favorite
  • The Over is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings between these teams

Bucs offense too strong

The Giants have historically played the Bucs well, but this is a mismatch between the Bucs’ offense and the Giants’ secondary.

Tampa Bay receivers Antonio Brown and Chris Godwin are both on the injury report. But coming off a loss, and with a win necessary for Tampa Bay to keep its lead on the Saints, I expect both players will play, barring any last-minute complications.

Brady’s favorite target, Rob Gronkowski, is also finally set to return. When at full strength at home, this Bucs offense will be too much for the Giants.

Score prediction: Bucs 33, Giants 17

NFL Week 11 pick: Buccaneers -11

Giants vs. Bucs Pick powered by The Quant Edge

Our predictive engine is calling for the Buccaneers to cover the spread and for the score to go Over the projected total.


 

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