Giants vs. Buccaneers: The best player prop bets for MNF
Tampa Bay have lost two straight road games, but now the reigning Super Bowl champs are back on home soil to take on the Giants, who arrive fresh off the bye. New York have won two of their last three games, and are trying to pull off a miraculous run to the postseason. Last time we saw them on MNF, they hung with the Chiefs - and could have won realistically - before going down 20-17.
The Bucs were one of the big stories last week for all the wrong reasons, as despite being 9.5-point favorites, they lost by 10 points to the Washington Football Team, who came into that game 2-6. Brady and company are favored to bounce back in a big way, with the total set at 49.5.
Tue, November 23 2021, 1:15 AM
Tom Brady: Over/Under 37.5 Pass Attempts
After back-to-back defeats on the road, "TB12" and the Bucs are back in Tampa Bay, and plenty of pundits and bettors are expecting a "get right" game for Bruce Arians’ team. But the Giants might be able to keep this close, and that could mean plenty of air yards for Brady.
The GOAT is attempting more passes per game this season than he ever has in his 20-year career, tallying 41.9 attempts every match. In six of his nine games this year, he’s thrown at least 40 times, and the three outliers haven’t exactly been low numbers – 36, 36, and 34.
The Bucs throw 66% of the time when they are on offense, and this is unlikely to change against the Giants. Everyone raves about how good Tampa Bay are defending against the run, but the Giants aren’t too shoddy either – keeping the Raiders, Chiefs and Panthers each under 118 rushing yards in the three weeks before their bye.
Now coming off the back of 15 days' rest, recuperation, and preparation, expect the Giants to come out firing. That is going to result in TB12 chucking. Teams against the Giants have thrown 58% of the time, averaging 37.8 passes a game against them – the sixth-highest in the league.
Evan Engram: Over/Under 34.5 Receiving Yards
Engram has been a model of consistency this season, getting at least four targets in six of his seven games this year, and at least three catches in six of the seven games. That hasn’t always translated into huge receiving yards – in four of the seven games he’s fallen under 28 yards – but he could have more luck on Monday night.
The extended rest from the bye week will have done Engram no harm, as he looks to extend his six-game streak of at least three catches a game. That should be doable against the Bucs, who allow an average of 6.56 receptions per game to the tight end position – with only the Raiders and the Eagles allowing more.
Engram’s average yards per reception this season is a career low 8.6, while the Bucs allow just 8.5 yards per reception to tight ends. That’s a red flag, but given his consistent looks from Daniel Jones, the likely uptick in receptions, and the Giants coming off a bye, it’s hard not to like Engram’s chances of beating this line.
He would’ve beaten this line in three of his five games before the bye, and can do so again on primetime.
Leonard Fournette: Over/Under 25.5 Receiving Yards
Antonio Brown will miss Monday’s clash with his ankle injury, while Rob Gronkowski looks likely to be a game-time decision after missing Saturday’s practice with a back issue. Chris Godwin is good to go despite a nagging foot issue, but what I’m getting at here is that the Bucs’ offensive weapons aren’t at full strength. With that in mind, Fournette’s input in the passing game may take a jump.
Last week he saw a season-high nine targets from Brady, and turned that into eight catches for 45 yards. He’s now had at least five targets in five of his last six games, and has caught at least three passes in eight of his nine games. "Prime Time Lenny" is averaging 31.6 yards a game this season, and in 20 career games where he has had at least six targets, Fournette has cleared the 25.5 line 17 times (85%).
The Giants have already shown they’re vulnerable against pass-catching running backs this season, giving up 54.3 receiving yards per game to running backs. Only five teams in the NFL have given up more.
Keep your eye on Tampa Bay’s injury updates, but with Brown out and Gronk questionable, Fournette is a great bet to take a few more targets.